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Champions League Odds, Projections | Best Bet for AC Milan vs Inter

Champions League Odds, Projections | Best Bet for AC Milan vs Inter article feature image

Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Olivier Giroud.

We’ve reached the semifinals of the Champions League and a rematch of last season between Real Madrid and Manchester City awaits, along with a Milan derby at the San Siro between AC Milan and Inter.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate for each semifinal match. 

The pair, part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures, delivering their favorite picks along the way. They’ll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you’d like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham’s Model Projections

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

Real Madrid Odds+210
Manchester City Odds+120
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | TimeTuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchCBS
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: There’s no question that Manchester City are the best team in the world and are the rightful favorite to advance in this tie. The question is whether Real Madrid are more defensively solid in 2023 compared to last season and whether Los Blancos should really be a +0.25 underdog at home against anyone given their successful profile in that role.

Manchester City’s power rating is also potentially at an all time high following 11 straight league wins and domination of every big club they have played in the last two months. It wasn’t that long ago that Manchester City closed -105 on the moneyline at RB Leipzig in a first leg. Now, the Cityzens are as low as +115 at Real Madrid, a clearly superior team to Leipzig.

If Real Madrid do have more of the ball than you’d expect, then Eduardo Camavinga becomes the key tactically for Madrid. He’s been much more reserved and essentially served as an extra central midfielder defender to help Real’s transition defense. That’s a major key against Haaland and De Bruyne trying to combine in the middle to get in behind quickly in transitions.

With Militao out and Real Madrid relying on Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba, Camavinga may become Real Madrid’s most important defender.

City should be the favorite in this match, but the market is too inflated to bet them now. The Cityzens opened +140 and have been bet down solidly. Since I see no value on the full game moneyline or total, I’m targeting some props based on how the game will play out.

Their elite shot suppression and Real Madrid’s focus on high quality moments inflates their shots per game total. I’d bet under 11.5 Real Madrid shots attempted at -110 or better (available at BetRivers at Bet365). Even if Real Madrid have more of the ball than expected, it will be more conservative possession.

Pick: Real Madrid Under 11.5 shots attempted (-110 or better)

AC Milan vs Inter

AC Milan Odds+210
Inter Odds+145
Over/Under2.5 (+136 / -166)
Day | TimeWednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchCBS
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Inter have beaten AC Milan in two of their three meetings this season, but Inter have won the xG battle in all three of the matches. The thing that AC Milan can do to cause Inter is something that teams like Roma and Lazio couldn’t accomplish, which is disrupting build up play.

However, through three meetings AC Milan haven’t really been able to solve that problem, as their PPDA has been above 10 in all three matches. They faced Inter twice in a 18 day period and got beat pretty badly in both meetings. The second of those two meetings was especially bad, as Milan got the field tilted on them at 77.2% and only had one shot in the box.

AC Milan were able to press Napoli, cause all sorts of problems in their build up play and act as the better side over the two legs. So, why can’t they do the same to Inter? Well, Inter are stylistically a much different team than Napoli. They play out of a 3-5-2, looking to attack in wide areas as well as in build up. They showed how good they are as a build up team in their last few matches, beating two low block passive teams in Lazio and Roma, and then they showed how good of a transitional team they are against Benfica, conceding over 55% possession in both matches while still creating 2.6 xG.

Milan themselves did a great job of attacking in wide areas against Napoli themselves, but their best player Rafael Leao is a doubt to play in this match, which is a massive blow. Leao has been one of the best players in Italy and means everything for Milan’s attack. This season, he leads AC Milan in shots per 90 from the left wing position and has the most progressive carries and progressive passes received for AC Milan.

Their attack doesn’t have another player of his skill set to play the left wing position and it will be reliant on Olivier Giroud, Ismael Bennacer and Brahim Diaz to be their offensive threats against one of the best defenses in Italy.

I have Inter projected at +108 accounting for Leao being out, though if he was in I would have Inter at +132. Either way, Inter have shown they’ve been the better side in all three meetings this season and are in better form, so I’ll back them on the moneyline.

Pick: Inter ML (+145 via FanDuel)

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