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Champions League Odds: Wednesday Best Bets, Including Manchester City-Dortmund (September 14)

Champions League Odds: Wednesday Best Bets, Including Manchester City-Dortmund (September 14) article feature image
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Mike Hewitt/Getty. Pictured: Ederson.

The Champions League rolls on with the second group stage matchweek set to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Three of our soccer analysts — BJ Cunningham, Nick Hennion and Anthony Dabbundo — have derived their best bets from the second day of play, and we’ve compiled those picks below.

With a full slate of Champions League odds to choose from, see where our writers recommend you place your bets.

Our Wednesday Champions League Best Bets

Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund

City Odds -650
Dortmund Odds +850
Draw +550
Over/Under 3.5 (-130 / -110)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Hennion: The only thing worse than facing the Manchester City defense? Facing a well-rested Manchester City defense.

To date in the English Premier League, the Cityzens sit tied for second in total big scoring chances against, and they held Sevilla to zero big chances last week in Spain.

In just three home EPL matches, manager Pep Guardiola’s side has allowed only a single big scoring chance per match and only 0.6 combined expected goals (xG).

On the flip side, this Dortmund attack leaves a lot to be desired away from home. Through three road fixtures in the wide-open Bundesliga, Dortmund have created only seven big scoring chances. Just this past weekend against RB Leipzig, it managed zero big scoring chances.

Given Dortmund are used to seeing a lot of the ball, I question how they will fare against a City side that dominates possession and is so good at efficiently time-wasting. For those reasons, I’ll back the Dortmund team total under at anything better than -115.

Pick: Dortmund Team Total Under 0.5 (+100)

Dabbundo: City host Dortmund in a rematch of the 2021 Champions League quarterfinal, where the Black and Yellows really pushed City across the 180 minutes but came up short of reaching the semifinals on aggregate.

Erling Haaland has been on an electric run of goal scoring and that has inflated this total higher than it really should be. Dortmund set out this summer to improve their defense and the results have been pretty encouraging to date.

Dortmund kept a clean sheet in the CL opener, have conceded about 1 xGA per match in Germany and now have better passing center backs with Niklas Sule and Nico Schlotterbeck. What Dortmund have really lacked is a true attacking identity as the attack has regressed considerably.

It had been overrated for the better part of two seasons due to its ridiculous rate of finishing off chances. The elite transitions and finishing of old Dortmund squads included Jadon Sancho and Haaland, but not this one. Dortmund have averaged less than 1.5 xG per match in Germany, and they couldn’t generate any chances against RB Leipzig on the road Saturday. That will be even more difficult against Man City’s elite press and possession system.

Dortmund’s midfield and defense is now good enough to prevent an onslaught and keep this game under 3.5 goals. My projection has 3.21 goals, and I like the under at -120 or better.

Pick: Under 3.5 (-110)

Juventus vs. Benfica

Juventus Odds +125
Benfica Odds +225
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: In their first Champions League game, Juventus actually had a pretty good showing against PSG. They only lost on xG 1.4 to 0.8, only got outshot 15 to 13 and progressive passes were 29 to 27 in favor of PSG.

The Juventus offense right now has some major problems, however.

Juve’s best attacker, Federico Chiesa, is still injured. They don’t have a lot of options to supply Dusan Vlahovic up top. You’ve seen it so far this season because Juventus have only created over 1 xG in three of their first seven matches.

Benfica have a really good defense. Last season in the Portuguese first division, they allowed just 0.84 xG per match. Even in the Champions League last season, if you remove the matches against Bayern Munich and Liverpool, Benfica only allowed 7.3 xG in six matches against Barcelona, Ajax and Dynamo Kiev.

They did not look threatening in attack throughout their first Champions League match at home against Maccabi Haifa. Only 0.9 xG was created off of 16 shots, and Benfica had just 20 touches in Haifa’s penalty area. That’s bad against one of the worst teams in the competition, so it seems they are definitely missing Darwin Nunez.

I like the under in this match, and I project just 2.06 goals.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-115)

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