Champions League Preview & Predictions: Best Bets For Chelsea vs. Dinamo Zagreb & AC Milan vs. RB Salzburg

Champions League Preview & Predictions: Best Bets For Chelsea vs. Dinamo Zagreb & AC Milan vs. RB Salzburg article feature image

Sebastian Widdman/Getty. Pictured: Thiago Silva.

Entering Wednesday’s pair of fixtures, Group E in the UEFA Champions League still carries slight intrigue.

Although Chelsea already have the top spot locked up, the remaining three teams still have some motivation. Milan need a point against Salzburg to reach the knockouts while the Austrian outfit needs all three points to advance.

Meanwhile, Dinamo Zagreb need a win against Chelsea and a Salzburg defeat to reach the Europa League knockout round.

With those scenarios in mind, how should bettors approach Wednesday’s fixtures? Let’s dive into my best bets for each game.

Group E Champions League Best Bets

Chelsea vs. Dinamo Zagreb

Chelsea Odds-310
Zagreb Odds+450
Over/Under2.5 (-175 / +140)
Day | TimeWednesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Although Chelsea have secured their status as group winners, this shapes up as a good revenge spot for the Blues.

On Matchday 1, Chelsea fell in Croatia 1-0, but now they get a shot against Zabreb at their preferred venue. Through two UCL home fixtures, manager Graham Potter’s side has a +3.25 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential and a +3 big scoring chances differential.

In fact, although it should be taken with a grain of salt, Potter’s squad has surrendered only 0.5 total xGOT in matches against AC Milan and RB Salzburg. Thus, I question whether Zagreb can get on the scoreboard in this match, especially considering they have generated only 0.97 xGOT per 90 minutes across their previous three Champions League fixtures.

At the same time, expect Chelsea to rotate their squad a bit on Wednesday with a visit from Arsenal coming over the weekend. Without a full-strength squad, expect the Blues to drop off a bit from their 1.81 xGOT per 90 output in the Champions League.

Based on those factors, bet this single-game parlay to +105.

Pick: Chelsea ML + Total Under 3.5 (+120)

AC Milan vs. RB Salzburg

Milan Odds-210
Salzburg Odds+350
Over/Under3.5 (-156 / +128)
Day | TimeWednesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

This prop cashed in the first meeting between these clubs and I expect you’ll see it hit again.

We begin with Milan, who have played eight home games this season in Serie A and the Champions League and have failed to score only once. That match? Against Chelsea in a game where the hosts had a man sent off early in the game.

On the flip-side, Salzburg have yet to keep a road clean sheet in the Champions League and have allowed at least one goal in four straight road games in all competitions.

At the same time, this Milan defense is ripe with injury concerns and should struggle to keep the visitors at bay. Just in their last five fixtures in all competitions, manager Stefano Pioli’s side has allowed at least one tally in four games as well as one goal in 13-of-17 fixtures this season.

Given the strength of the Salzburg attack – 1.31 xGOT per 90 minutes in five UCL fixtures – expect it to exploit this Milan defense and get on the board at least once.

Bet this prop market to -140.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-140)

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