Champions League Quarterfinal Betting: Do Porto Have Any Chance of Upsetting Liverpool?

Apr 17, 2019 12:25 PM EDT
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Porto and Liverpool

  • Liverpool are in prime position to reach their fifth Champions League semifinal since 2004-05 as they take a 2-0 lead on the road to Portugal on Wednesday (3 p.m. ET on Galavision, fuboTV and B/R Live).
  • FC Porto are lofty 14-1 underdogs to overcome the deficit and advance to the semifinal vs. Barcelona, and bettors aren't confident in the upset.

It’s not likely FC Porto will pull off an upset, but the Reds will still need to be careful considering there have already been two clubs to overcome a two-goal deficit in this year’s Champions League Round of 16 (PSG vs. Manchester United and Juventus vs. Atletico Madrid).

Ajax’s comeback upsets at Real Madrid (Round of 16) and Juventus (Quarterfinal) in this season’s competition could also give FC Porto a boost of belief heading into Wednesday’s home match.

However, a goal by Liverpool would ultimately sink any chances since Porto would need four to advance. Jurgen Klopp has all attacking options at hand and his side has been one of the stingiest defensive clubs in the world this season. It’d be a tall task indeed.

Liverpool-Porto Odds to Advance

Liverpool were -470 favorites to advance before the first leg at home and are now listed at -2450.

FC Porto opened with +380 odds but are out to +1400 following the 2-0 loss in the opening leg.

Each club is battling for a domestic league title and there’s been no chance to rest players entering the final months of the season. The good thing is that every match has been meaningful for both teams and there’s been no lack of focus.

Injuries

Liverpool: M Jordan Henderson (probable), D Dejan Lovren (questionable), M Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (doubtful), D Joe Gomez (doubtful)

Porto: F Vincent Aboubakar (out)

Second Leg Betting Breakdown

Liverpool eased past Porto in the first leg, 2-0, which wasn’t a great outcome for the sportsbooks.

Sharp and public bettors were on the same side as the large majority of wagers and money took Liverpool to win and cover -1.5 goals. The one redeeming result was the under (2.5), especially since the Reds scored twice by the 26th minute.

The action has been just as lopsided for the second leg, but the number of bets and actual money wagered hasn’t come close to the first leg. Wednesday’s other UCL match between Manchester City and Tottenham has attracted more than twice the tickets as Liverpool-Porto.

In any case, more than 70% of the bets and money have come in on Liverpool (+110) to win yet the market hasn’t bothered adjusting. Odds have slowly fluctuated between +105 and +115 but hardly anything drastic or sudden.

The totals market has been dominated by bets on the over (2.5) and sportsbooks have had to adjust the juice at least 10 cents. Again, the actual ticket counts aren’t high, but the over has received more than 90% of over/under bets and money.

Liverpool’s form has been solid, winning seven straight in all competitions, and there’s not much evidence to support a wager against them. However, the actual result may not be much of a factor, and that keeps me from wanting any part of this.


Updated Champions League Title Odds

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