Chelsea vs Dortmund Odds, Pick: Expert Champions League Predictions
Darren Walsh/Getty. Pictured: Wesley Fofana.
Chelsea vs Dortmund Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-140 / +110)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-145 / +115)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Chelsea look to erase a one-goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League fixture with Dortmund on Tuesday.
The Blues got their first win in a long time to take a little bit of the pressure off of Graham Potter. You could make the argument that Chelsea were the better side in the first leg and probably should have come away with at least a draw.
With Chelsea sitting in 10th in the Premier League, a top four finish is pretty much out of the cards right now, so their full focus must be on the Champions League.
Dortmund have been the hottest team in the world out of the World Cup break. They have won all 10 of their matches, including the first leg against Chelsea, and they are tied at the top of the Bundesliga table. However, going on the road and seeing out this tie against Chelsea’s offense is another story.
Chelsea Finally Able to Finish
The first leg of this matchup featured so many chances it was shocking that only one goal was scored. A total of 3.5 xG were created, 2.1 of which by Chelsea.
Very early on, Chelsea discovered the best way to exploit the Dortmund defense was to allow the match to become transitional. That is where Dortmund thrive offensively, but Chelsea exposed some weaknesses when they had numbers going forward.
The Blues’ pressing was outstanding and it’s what allowed them to be so threatening on the counter. Chelsea had a PPDA of 6.4 and forced 9 high turnovers in that first leg, and effective pressing is nothing new for Graham Potter’s side, as Chelsea are No. 1 in the Premier League in PPDA and top six in both high turnovers & progressive passes + dribbles allowed.
Chelsea’s offense is still way overdue for some positive regression. They were able to find the back of the net against Leeds United on Saturday, but they still ended up creating 1.46 xG. In Chelsea’s last seven matches they have scored just two goals, but they have created 9.6 xG.
Dortmund Playing at Relentless Level
Dortmund’s offense has absolutely been cooking out of the World Cup break, averaging 2.05 xG in the Bundesliga. They are now second in the Bundesliga in big scoring chances, shots per 90 minutes and box entries, behind only Bayern Munich.
They are no long reliant on Anthony Modeste to be their only striker up top. Karim Adeyemi is going to miss this match, but Sebastian Haller is back and playing regular minutes, which is huge for Dortmund considering he was a 0.76 xG per 90 minute striker for Ajax last season.
Dortmund are 12th in the Bundesliga in xG per set piece allowed and Chelsea created 0.50 xG off of set pieces in the first leg. They even scored off of a corner on Saturday against Leeds and Graham Potter’s Brighton teams were always historically one of the most efficient set piece offenses in the Premier League.
The Black and Yellow are also going to be on a backup goalkeeper as Kobal is hurt. The backup keeper Alexander Meyer is already a -3.6 post shot xG +/- in only five 90s.
Dortmund are at their best when they’re playing in transition, which is how they are going to set up in this match, particularly with a one goal advantage.
They were also very fortunate to get out with a win on Friday against RB Leipzig, who created 2.4 xG and had 14 penalty box shots, which is actually the same amount Chelsea had in the first leg in Germany.
Chelsea vs Dortmund Pick
The first leg ended up being a very end-to-end style match with both teams realizing their best path to success offensively was to make the match transitional.
If Dortmund decide to sit in a low block, let Chelsea have the ball and try to see this tie out defensively, they’ll be playing a dangerous game. They just tried that against Leipzig last Friday and were incredibly lucky only to concede one goal.
Plus, Dortmund are not the type of team that wants to just sit back. They have the attacking talent to really hurt Chelsea in transition, just like they did in the first leg, so don’t be surprised if they come out aggressive looking for the knockout punch.
I have 2.91 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-115)
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