Chelsea vs Manchester City Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Chelsea vs Manchester City Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview article feature image

Pictured: Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling. (Photo by Mick Walker – CameraSport via Getty Images)

  • Manchester City are favored to beat Chelsea in a crucial Premier League fixture.
  • Is there betting value on the match?
  • Johnathan Wright explains why he's looking at one side and one prop.

Chelsea vs. Manchester City Odds

Thursday, Jan. 5
3 p.m. ET
Chelsea Odds+380
Manchester City Odds-145
Over/Under2.5 (-140 / +110)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-130 / +105)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Chelsea hosts the defending champions Manchester City on Thursday in the latest battle between two of the league’s Big Six.

Both sides are in need of victory after each dropped points in 1-1 draws over the weekend. The Cityzens are chasing Arsenal’s seven-point league lead, while the Blues find themselves in the middle of the table — 10 points out of a Champions League bid. 

Will we see Chelsea break their horrid spell and get back into the win column under Graham Potter, or will City take advantage of Arsenal’s inability to find victory during the midweek and makeup ground in the table? 

Here is our look at the Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds and a betting pick for Thursday.

Chelsea Lack Camaraderie

It has been a tough start for Chelsea under new American owner Todd Boehly. Bringing in Potter and spending a record amount of money on new players during the transfer window has yet to yield positive results.

On paper, the Blues have a world-class squad, but Potter's inability to galvanize the team has it playing without an identity. That lack of identity and camaraderie has been most prevalent on the attacking side of the ball.

Chelsea's offense, which includes Raheem Sterling, Kai Havertz, Christian Pulisic and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, are recording only 18.2 xG this season (15th in the league) and have just three goals in their past six games.

On a brighter note, Chelsea have only lost one match at Stamford Bridge this season (to league leaders Arsenal). And though the goals are still hard to come by in their home stadium, they have allowed just 0.63 goals in front of their fans.

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Manchester City Lacking Quality in the Final Third?

Manchester City have dropped points in two of their past three matches.

The big reason they have had uncharacteristic results of late is because they have lacked quality in front of goal. That seems weird to say as Erling Haaland already has 21 goals this season — more than Chelsea as a whole (20) — but as a team, City have just five goals from 7.6 xG in their past three league outings.

However, despite their recent results and play in front of goal, the sportsbooks still have them as favorites to win the league for the fifth time in six years. Given the talent they have on the roster and their title experience, I tend to agree with the oddsmakers at this stage in the season.

Thursday's match is one where Pep Guardiola's title experience will come into play. He will have his side treat this as a must-win. Three points at Stamford Bridge would put them back within five points of the league leaders, so expect them to find their shooting boots.

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Chelsea vs. Manchester City Pick

With a roster as talented as the Blues, things could click at any moment. Perhaps a big standalone game against City is all it will take for them to turn their season around.

That said, I don't see it happening. Chelsea have just one win in their past seven EPL matches. And after Arsenal dropped points on Tuesday, Manchester City smell blood in the water and be motivated to increase their title-run position.

Take the Cityzens on the moneyline.

I am also placing a small bet on Sterling to get a shot on target against his old team. He has hit the target on 47% of his shots this season, giving us slight value at +120, assuming he accumulates at least one shot.

Pick:  Manchester City ML (-155) | Raheem Sterling Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+120)

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