China vs Haiti Odds & Pick | Women’s World Cup Preview

China vs Haiti Odds

Friday, July 28

7 a.m. ET

FS1

China and Haiti meet in the second round of the group stage with both teams needing all three points for any chance at getting to the round of 16.

The favorite lost a heartbreaker in the 90th minute against Denmark in their opening match after a relatively low-event type match. China were the Asian Cup champions in 2022, but since their title they've had some very poor results in friendlies coming into the World Cup. Three points in their most favorable match is needed for them to make the it the knockout stage.

Haiti put a valiant effort in their opening match, losing only 1-0 to one of the tournament favorites in England. This is the golden generation for the Haitian National Team with a lot of their players playing over in France gaining valuable experience against some of the top players in the world. So, it shouldn't have come as too much of a shock that they were competitive against England.

Let's get into China vs Haiti in the Women's World Cup.

China Struggle on Offensive End

China may have lost in stoppage time to Denmark, but offensively speaking they did very little going forward. They only created 0.44 xG on nine shots with none of those nine shots having an xG rating over .20.

Tactically speaking, China are very similar to a lot of teams in the tournament, as they favor playing out of a 4-4-2, conceding possession to their opponent and looking to play in transition. They also put a premium on being efficient off of set pieces, ranking in the 75th percentile for set piece efficiency. China also tend to play very narrow trying to close off the middle of the pitch, so they can be exploited in wide areas, but they tend to go with the principal of “overload to isolate."

That means they will try to overload the middle of the pitch to get their wingers in 1-on-1 opportunities on the outside to eventually deliver balls into the box.

Out of possession, China defend in a mid or low block with the four midfielders playing extremely narrow and close to each other. It has been effective as they have one of the better xG allowed per 90 and are in the 84th percentile for interceptions per 90 minutes, indicating their ability to defend in that low block. China want the match to be transitional, but that's also going to play right in Haiti's hands, so I am not sure if they should be this big of a favorite.

Haiti Capable of Applying Pressure 

Haiti have shown the ability to control possession and be a dominant side when they were playing the minnows of CONCACAF Qualifying, but recently when they’ve had to face better competition in the likes of the United States, Mexico, Jamaica, Senegal, and Chile they have become a 4-4-2 direct counterattacking style team, which is what we saw in the opening match against England.

Out of possession, Haiti aren't really in a “low” block style 4-4-2, as their objective to is to regain possession in the middle third of the pitch. This was very evident in their 3-0 win over Mexico in the lead up to the World Cup, when they regained possession 30 times in the middle third. The mid-block didn't really give England too many problems, but against a poor possession team like China they may be able to give them some problems.

In terms of talent, a majority of the Haitian roster is playing over in France, but only a handful are playing in the top division with the rest made up of college players from the United States. They have blistering pace going forward, so if the match becomes transitional they'll be able to put pressure on China's backline.

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China vs Haiti Pick

All but three of China’s players play domestically for their club teams, so talent wise in this group they are a lot closer to Haiti than the odds are suggesting. You couple that with the fact that in the lead up to this World Cup they’ve been beaten 4-0 by Sweden, drew both Ireland and Switzerland 0-0 and then got thrashed 3-0 by Spain, and the odds just don't make sense.

Haiti's performance in the opening match was so incredibly encouraging, especially as a four-goal underdog on the spread. They created 0.60 xG, which may not sound like a lot, but they were going up against one of the best defensive teams in the tournament.

I really don't get China being this big a favorite against a team of similar talent, so I like the value on Haiti +0.5 (+120).

The Pick: Haiti +0.5 (+120 via Caesars)