Colombia vs South Korea Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Preview

Colombia vs South Korea Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Preview article feature image

Han Myung-Gu/Getty. Pictured: South Korea Women’s Soccer.

Colombia vs South Korea Odds

Monday, July 24
10 p.m. ET
Colombia Odds+187
South Korea Odds+155
Over/Under2.5 (+150 / -200)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+110 / -150)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

South Korea and Colombia kick off their World Cup in Group H with a crucial match as second place is up for grabs in the group.

Colombia are going to be one of the more exciting teams to watch in this tournament given how aggressive their approach is. They made it all the way to the Copa America finals before losing to Brazil and have had some decent results in the lead-up to this World Cup. Colombia are either going to make the round of 16, blowing away Morocco and South Korea, or they're going to crash out of this tournament in spectacular fashion. There is no in between.

South Korea are making their third straight appearance at the World Cup, but they've only made it to the round of 16 once and in 2019 lost all three games in their group by a combined score of 8 to 1. They made it all the way to the final of the AFC Asian Cup in 2022. They lost to China, 3-2, but they did beat Australia in the round of 16. They have a great chance at this World Cup to get to the round of 16 in a weak group, so three points is crucial in this opening match.

Colombia Will be an Exciting Team

Colombia play fast and direct, trying to get behind an opponent's defense by playing a lot of risky long passes that often get intercepted. However, if you are not ready to deal with the pace Colombia bring, they will punish you. When they do get into the final third they tend to slow things down, trying to pick out the right passes and runs with the two holding midfielders in their 4-2-3-1 system making long runs into the box. So, if Colombia lose the ball, you can see why they tend to struggle in transition defense after committing so many players forward.

When Colombia are out of possession, they will press high like crazy, but it’s often way too aggressive and lacking structure. So, when they’re playing against smaller sides that struggle to build out of the back, they will be successful, but when they play some of the top teams in the world, it gets ugly.

In the spring they played France and Italy in friendlies and lost both in lopsided fashion, but they did create over 1 xG in both matches, which shows you the aggressiveness of this team to get forward and put pressure on the opponent's back line.

Mayra Ramírez will be their key player in creating a lot of those chances. She had a fantastic season in Spain for third place Levante, scoring 14 goals and dishing out 11 assists. Colombia have a handful of players playing in the top flight in Spain, but a majority of their players are playing domestically in Colombia.

South Korea Should be Licking Their Chops

South Korea play a style that sets up perfectly for the teams they are going to be facing. It’s a very direct one or two touch style with a lot of fluidity in the attack and it’s a beautiful thing to watch. They can play a slow build-up style as well when they are facing an inferior side, but they are also perfectly fine not having the ball and looking to hit teams on the counter.

Out of possession, they press very intensely, trying to win the ball back with a high line. That was very successful throughout the AFC Asian Cup on their way to the final, notching a draw with Japan and win over Australia along the way. They are also coming into this World Cup unbeaten over the past calendar year. In friendlies they have beaten Haiti, New Zealand, Zambia, and Jamaica and drawn with Canada, so confidence is sky high.

In terms of talent, most of the the South Korean roster is playing domestically with a few players playing abroad in the WSL and Liga F. Their key player is without a doubt Lee Geum-Min, who didn’t put up good xG or xAssist numbers for Brighton this season in the WSL but is a ball progression machine. She averaged 4.5 progressive passes per 90 minutes, which is in the 99th percentile for the WSL.

So, South Korea are set up perfectly to play in transition against a high-pressing team like Colombia.

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Colombia vs South Korea Pick

Colombia are the most aggressive team in this World Cup, even if their low-event matches in the lead-up to this tournament haven't shown it. They can pile on chances in bunches, but their high wire act committing so many players forward often leaves them incredibly vulnerable in quick counterattacking opportunities, which South Korea are capable of executing.

South Korea's confidence is high given their results coming into the World Cup, and they will be perfectly fine sitting deep, setting pressing traps and punishing Colombia in transition, which should make for a very fun end-to-end match.

So, I like the value on the over 2.5 at +150.

The Pick: Over 2.5 (+150 via bet365) 

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