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Copenhagen vs. Manchester City Betting Preview: All Signs Point to the Under on Tuesday

Copenhagen vs. Manchester City Betting Preview: All Signs Point to the Under on Tuesday article feature image

Photo by Pedro Salado/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Erling Haaland.

  • Man City is a huge favorite to defeat Copenhagen in the Champions League today.
  • Anthony Dabbundo believes the value lies with the total.
  • Read on for his best bet and analysis of the fixture.

Copenhagen vs. Man City Odds

Copenhagen Odds+2300
Man City Odds-950
Over/Under3.5 (-118 / -104)
Day | TimeTuesday | 12:45 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City have shown early in the 2022-23 campaign why they are clearly the best team in the world right now. The Cityzens have posted dominant numbers in the Premier League and Champions League and remain unbeaten in all competitions.

Sitting atop the CL group with nine points, they have a chance to all but clinch the group on Wednesday with a road trip to Copenhagen. Just six days ago, City beat them 5-0 and dominated in all phases of the match.

The Danish side produced next to nothing in attack (0.3 xG) and was outshot 29-2 in the 90 minutes. Erling Haaland scored twice, Riyad Mahrez added a penalty and Copenhagen contributed an own goal to the 5-0 victory.

In the return fixture in Denmark, will Copenhagen provide more defensive resistance? And what is City's desire to get margin given that they have the group sewn up and have a tricky road fixture at Liverpool this weekend?

Man City

Manchester City do have some injury concerns to contend with as Kalvin Phillips, John Stones and Kyle Walker are all out for this match and the foreseeable future. The injuries won't matter that much in this match because the defense is unlikely to be really tested by Copenhagen.

However, City are in a situation where we could see plenty of attacking rotation. Haaland does have a significant injury history of muscle issues in his young career, and he's already shown how valuable he is to the side. Pep Guardiola will probably start him, but I don't think he'll play more than 60 minutes.

The same could be true for Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden with Liverpool up next. City created three non-penalty xG in the last match at home, and the total non-penalty xG was just 3.4 at City.

Now on the road at Copenhagen, City won't be looking to run up the score, and they also won't continue to finish at the rate that they have through the first quarter of the year. City have 33 league goals from 20.9 xG and 11 goals from 9.2 xGF.

Even with Haaland as an elite over expected goals finisher, that's unsustainable for an entire team to maintain. Now with key players in the system out and others rotating in, this could be a regression spot, too.


You can't compare City's attack to Sevilla's in the Champions League in any way, shape or form, but it is promising that the Danish side held Sevilla to 0.6 xG at home in their only CL home match. They will once again be without creative attacking midfielder Zeca and forward Andreas Cornelius.

I would expect Copenhagen to defend with more resolve behind the support of the home fans. Because goal difference could matter in the race for third place with Sevilla, Copenhagen are less likely to push a ton of numbers forward  in an attempt to score a goal and further expose themselves.

The Danish side is boosted by the return of Kevin Diks and Viktor Christiansen after both missed out on the weekend match and played last week. That's an indication that Copenhagen are resting some of their key players for their best defensive effort in this match.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a major motivational and situational mismatch on Tuesday. Of course there is a huge gulf in talent and quality between the two sides. While I don't expect Copenhagen to really threaten the City goal because of the missing attacking players and City's defensive dominance, Copenhagen should give its best defensive effort. When one of the European giants visits your stadium, you expect an inspired effort. 

City couldn't be in a worse situational spot with the group all but locked up. My colleague BJ Cunningham only projects 3.06 goals for this match, and you just don't expect City to match last week's output on the road this week.

It's an ugly pick, but even the best team in the world will have its flat spots. I'd play under 3.5 at -110 or better.

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-110 or better)

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