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Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Odds, Pick: Exciting Affair in Store For Premier League Match

Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Odds, Pick: Exciting Affair in Store For Premier League Match article feature image
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Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.

  • Tottenham take on Crystal Palace on Wednesday in the Premier League.
  • Ian Quillen outlines the trends and factors at play in this match.
  • Read on for his prediction and best bet.

Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Odds

Wednesday, Jan. 4
3 p.m. ET
USA Network
Crystal Palace Odds +220
Tottenham Odds +120
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -122)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-132 / +105)
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Tottenham Hotspur look to arrest their recent slide on Wednesday when they visit a Crystal Palace side in search of a signature win.

After a blistering start, Spurs are slumping of late, and their most recent performance was arguably their worst of the season – a 2-0 home loss to Aston Villa on New Year’s Day.

The day before, Palace got their first points since the World Cup break, comfortably seeing out a 2-0 victory at AFC Bournemouth.

This is the London sides’ first meeting in more than a calendar year. Each won 3-0 at home last season, with Spurs taking the latter victory on Boxing Day of 2021 and Palace getting their win in September of that year.

Crystal Palace Facing Uphill Battle

Palace were deserving winners their last time out, but probably won’t be able to count on winning too many matches this season in a similar manner.

Jordan Ayew and Eberechi Eze both scored before halftime from corner kicks for the visitors. Without those set pieces, it would’ve marked a third consecutive league match without scoring for Patrick Vieira’s squad, dating back to before the World Cup break.

With 18 points and a 6-6-4 record (W-L-D), Palace have slightly overachieved against their -4 goal difference and -5.4 xGD so far. And, virtually all of Fulham’s better results have come against the lower ranks of the EPL landscape.

Their six wins are all against teams that began 2023 beneath them in the table, and their last home match was a disastrous 3-0 loss to Fulham.

To make matters worse, Tyrick Mitchell will serve the second of his three-match ban that resulted from the straight red card he received in that Fulham loss for his tackle on Kenny Tete.

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Tottenham Riding a Rollercoaster

Spurs have now conceded first and conceded multiple goals in seven consecutive Premier League matches.

It’s hard to pick out an exact reason why, however, and their 15 goals conceded over that seven-match stretch is nearly double their 8.5 xG allowed.

Nonetheless, the analytics show a material dip in form over that stretch, with Spurs playing to only a +0.5 xG difference over the seven games. They had played to a +5.8 xGDiff in the first 10 league matches.

Harry Kane is slowing a bit, even though he continues to be among the best Premier League strikers.  Kane’s four goals in those seven games is still impressive, but it’s well off the pace of the nine he scored in those first 10. His xG generation has also dipped. It’s about 0.4 xG per appearance over those last seven games against roughly 0.7 xG per match in the first 10.

Manager Antonio Conte’s squad is dealing with a few significant injuries as well. Striker Dejan Kulusevski could return after being a late scratch in the New Years’ Day loss to Aston Villa, but midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur and winger Richarlison remain out.

Those absences alone don’t explain the quantitative dip in form. We’re more likely looking at a team-wide dip in confidence, which Conte must figure out a way to solve.

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Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Pick

With Palace posting virtually the same xG difference at home that Spurs have posted away, it suggests Tottenham are too significantly favored.

At the same time, it’s hard to ignore Palace’s struggles against upper-echelon foes.

That leaves us with two wagers that we also considered in the last Spurs game: Both Teams to Score and Spurs to score first.

The latter has hit seven times in a row in Spurs’ league matches, but only twice in Palace’s last seven games. It’s also the kind of trend that often owes to randomness.

At -132 odds and an implied 56.9% probability, it’s probably the best value here even if it’s not a particularly sexy play.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-132)

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