Crystal Palace vs. Brentford Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Don’t Overvalue Bees in EPL Week 2

Crystal Palace vs. Brentford Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Don’t Overvalue Bees in EPL Week 2 article feature image
Credit:

Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Vieira.

  • Crystal Palace look to bounce back on Saturday morning against Brentford.
  • The Bees were the toast of the Premier League last week with a season-opening win over Arsenal, while Palace lost convincingly away to Chelsea.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down Brentford vs. Crystal Palace and delivers his pick below.

Crystal Palace vs. Brentford Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +160
Brentford Odds +185
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+126 / -154)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Crystal Palace look to rebound after a dreadful start to the season when they host Brentford at Selhurst Park.

Crystal Palace got thrashed by Chelsea last Saturday 3-0 on the road, which was not the start new manager Patrick Viera was looking for. The Eagles are going through a bit of a transition period at the moment, as they were one of the busiest clubs in the transfer market this summer.

If Palace are going to once again avoid relegation, they need to take all three points at home against a team like Brentford.

Brentford got their Premier League campaign off to a dream start, beating Arsenal 2-0 at home.

CAN YOU BEE-LIEVE IT? 🐝🐝🐝🐝🐝🐝

Brentford are top flight, and they've scored the first goal of the 2021/22 Premier League season! #MyPLMorning pic.twitter.com/87HpURszwn

— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 13, 2021

The Bees showed that they have no fear with their style of play and will constantly keep going forward, despite how open it leaves them at the back.

I  know it’s early, but the Bees could go to the top of the table with a win at Selhurst Park.

New-Look Palace Look to Rebound

The Eagles got romped 3-0 at Chelsea on opening weekend, but the loss was not as bad as it seems.

Crystal Palace only lost the expected goals battle 1.16-0.34. So while their offense was really poor, registering only four total shots in the match, their defense didn’t allow the Blues to create a ton of high-quality chances.

I love what Crystal Palace did in the transfer market and think it will help them stave off relegation this season.

The Eagles sold off their old, underperforming players like Andros Townsend, Patrick van Aanholt and Mamadou Sakho to name a few, then brought in some exciting young players.

The Eagles added center back Marc Guehi from Chelsea after spending last season on loan at Swansea, Lyon center back Joachim Anderson, who spent last season on loan at Fulham, and attacking midfielder Michael Olise from Championship side Reading.

Honestly, matchups like this against Brentford are where Crystal Palace can shine. Brentford play a press that is similar to that of Leeds United, who Crystal Palace beat 4-1 at Selhurst Park last season.

Palace still has Wilfred Zaha, who is one of the league’s best creative attackers and had 85 shot-creating actions in 27 appearances last season.

I think we will see the Eagles much more lively going forward and if their defense plays like they did against Chelsea, it’s going to be really hard for Brentford to create quality scoring chances.

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So Far, Brentford Are the Bees’ Knees

Brentford showed last Friday why they were truly the best team in the Championship last season. By expected goals the Bees had a +34.8 xGD, which was 10.3 xG higher than first-place Norwich City.

One of the reasons for that is Brentford’s attack, which scores goals in bunches at 1.66 xG per match. Striker Ivan Toney thrashed opposing defenses all season long during the 2020-21 campaign, breaking the Championship scoring record by bagging 32 goals with a 0.61 xG per 90-minute scoring rate.

What you saw against Arsenal is that Brentford play somewhat similar to that of Leeds in the fact that it plays high-tempo, high-intensity, “heavy-metal” football. It’s a very vertical style that condenses the middle, allowing wingers and fullbacks to get space on the outside in their 4-3-3 formation.

However, it leaves them very exposed at the back, although none of Arsenal’s chances were of the “can’t miss” variety. The Gunners still registered 22 shots and 42 shot-creating actions, which was the most in the Premier League on opening weekend.


Betting Analysis & Pick

I think the current line on this match is a bit of an overreaction to both teams’ opening-weekend results. I also think that Crystal Palace’s new, young and improved defense will be able to shut down Brentford’s attack.

Since I have Crystal Palace projected at +147, I think there is a little bit of value in backing them to grab all three points at +160 or better.

Pick: Crystal Palace +160

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