Crystal Palace vs. Leeds United Betting Preview: Premier League Odds, Expert Picks, Prediction (Sunday, Oct. 9)
Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Wilfried Zaha of Crystal Palace.
- Crystal Palace and Leeds United are both looking for momentum on Sunday.
- The Eagles are at plus-money on the three-way moneyline, but is there any value left there?
- Nicholas Hennion breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Palace vs. Leeds Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
To begin Sunday’s Premier League slate, Crystal Palace welcomes Jesse March & Leeds United to Selhurst Park.
These sides arrive at this fixture five spots apart in the current Premier League table and only have three wins between them in 14 matches. Most recently, Crystal Palace dropped all three points at home against Chelsea while Leeds drew at home against Aston Villa.
Historically, this head-to-head has witnessed the home team dominate. Across the past four meetings, home sides have a 7.3-2.7 advantage and have yet to drop all three points.
Yet again, Palace finds itself producing great underlying metrics and not being rewarded in the match outcome.
So far this season, manager Patrick Viera’s side has a -3 goal differential against a +2.1 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential. The gap is even worse at home, where Palace has a -1 goal differential against a +3.54 xGOT differential.
A large amount of that underperformance can be attributed to bad luck on the defensive end. In those four home matches, the Eagles have conceded six goals against 3.19 xGOT. So far, only four teams have conceded fewer xGOT than Palace at home.
Offensively, Palace is still underperforming at home, but to a lesser extent. Viera’s side has scored five goals off 6.73 xGOT and eight big scoring chances. Currently, only seven sides have created more home xGOT than the Eagles.
Following a strong start to the campaign, Leeds United has seen a dip in form of late. Manager Jesse Marsch’s side is winless in its last four fixtures after producing a four-match unbeaten run to begin this season. In the former set, Leeds’s troubles have largely come as a result of poor defensive form as three of its last four opponents created at least 1.5 expected goals, per fbref.com.
Plus, Leeds has continued to show itself as a poor defensive side away from home. Currently, only three sides have conceded more xGOT away from home than the Peacocks with all of those sides having a game in hand in terms of road record.
Offensively, Leeds has overperformed its underlying metrics both for the season and away from home. In general, Marsch’s side has scored 10 goals off 7.65 xGOT this season and four road goals off 3.5 xGOT.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Run, don’t walk to the window to bet Crystal Palace every which way in this match. As I referenced earlier, the home side has historically dominated this match. And it just so happens that the far superior team is playing at home on Sunday.
Personally, I don’t know how Leeds will be able to defend this Crystal Palace attack. Even if you expand the sample to include all Leeds road matches since its promotion to the top-flight, this is still a side conceding 1.64 expected goals per 90 minutes in road fixtures against non-Big Six opposition.
As a result, I’ll happily take hosts Palace at +105 on the moneyline and would personally play it at -115 or better.
The Pick: Crystal Palace Moneyline (+105)