England vs Colombia Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Best Bet
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Daniela Alexandra Arias Rojas.
England vs Colombia Odds
|Over / Under|
+150 / -200
England and Colombia meet in the quarterfinals of the Women's World Cup with England looking to avoid being upset yet again.
They needed extra time and penalties to get by Nigeria in the round of 16 and lost one of the their most important players, Lauren James, along the way. Outside of the match against China, England haven't looked that impressive, but the oddsmarkers still have them as the tournament favorite.
Colombia got a deserved win over Jamaica to set up this match with England. They have already pulled a massive upset over one of the other tournament favorites Germany and essentially knocked them out of the tournament. Colombia have two dynamic players that can take over the match at anytime so they are without a doubt a live underdog here.
England really have not been that impressive throughout this World Cup. They got back to back 1-0 wins against Haiti and Denmark and then blitzed China 6-1 when all they needed was a draw to win the group. In the round of 16 as a heavy favorite against Nigeria they got outshot 20-to-12 and lost the expected goals battle 1.2 to 0.9. For England to fail to create 1 xG against a below-average defense like Nigeria over 120 minutes is extremely alarming.
What is even more alarming is they will be without Lauren James who leads the team with three goals and three assists. So, England will have to find production elsewhere. They also better be ready to play through an intense high press that Colombia will throw at them.
England typically set up in a 4-3-3 formation and are a possession-dominant build up style team, but their pace is not slow. They will use a number of different passes and runs to exploit the space an opponent affords them and turn what looks like the start of slow build up into a quick transition opportunity.
What makes England so good, however, is how effective they are out of possession winning the ball back with their pressing. England play a very high line and press opponents who want to build out of the back with great intensity.
They like to force the ball to the middle of the pitch where they have two outstanding pressing midfielders in Manchester United’s Ella Toone and Bayern Munich’s Georgia Stanway. The great thing about England is that if a team beats the initial press, they don’t just drop back into their defensive shape, they double down and will continue to press high with their midfielders, which leaves their two center backs in 1-on-1 situations, which could end up being their downfall against Colombia.
Colombia have been the Cinderella story of this World Cup being the last South American team left in the field. They've already pulled off the stunner against Germany and really controlled the match against Jamaica to get a 1-0 win.
They play fast and direct trying to get in behind an opponents defense by playing a lot of risky long passes that often get intercepted. However, if you are not ready to deal with the pace Colombia brings, they will punish you. When they do get into the final third they tend to slow things down trying to pick out the right passes and runs with the two holding midfielder in their 4-2-3-1 system.
When Colombia are out of possession, they will press high like crazy, but it’s often way too aggressive and lacking structure. They got ripped apart by Germany, who created over two 2 xG, but against everyone else the press has been successful.
Lynda Caicedo has been a breakout stat for Colombia up the left wing, making punishing runs into the box and scoring two of Colombia's five goals.
Mayra Ramírez is another one of their key players. Even though she doesn't have a goal or an assist this tournament she had a fantastic season in Spain for third place Levante, scoring 14 goals and dishing out 11 assists. Colombia have a handful of players playing in the top flight in Spain, but a majority of their players are playing domestically in Colombia.
England vs Colombia
Colombia are a live dog here. Caicedo and Ramirez are two players that have consistently taken over games with their pace and physicality. England were already shorthanded coming into this World Cup and losing James is an even bigger blow, especially after playing a full 120 minutes plus penalties.
In my opinion, England are way overvalued coming off having to play extra time and being short handed on top of the fact that they haven't looked like the tournament favorite. Colombia's style of play can cause them a lot of problems in build up play and the Colombians have been a much better defensive team than expected in this tournament.
So, I like the value on Colombia +1 at -115.