Thursday Europa Conference League Final Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions, Best Bets: Can Jose Mourinho, Roma Down Feyenoord Rotterdam In Title Match?
Sportinfoto/vi/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Jose Mourinho of Roma.
- Roma and Feyenoord Rotterdam square off Wednesday for the tournament hardware in the Europa Conference League final.
- The Serie A stalwart is a solid moneyline favorite, but analyst Anthony Dabbundo has found betting value on the Dutch outfit.
- Check out below where he has landed with his top selection.
Roma vs. Feyenoord Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Roma has a chance at silverware in its first season with manager Jose Mourinho in charge. The Serie A power could become the first-ever champion of the Europa Conference League in the competition’s first year with a victory in Wednesday’s title match.
However, standing in its way Dutch stalwart Feyenoord Rotterdam, which finished third in the Eredivisie this season.
UEFA launched the conference league as a third-tier European competition to help more teams play in Europe. Even though both have already qualified for next year’s Europa League via their league finishes, a European trophy is still on the line.
Feyenoord and Roma had to win three consecutive, two-legged aggregate playoffs to get here. Feyenoord’s stellar attack powered them into the final with eight goals in two legs against Partizan Belgrade; six versus Slavia Prague; and, three in the first leg in its clash with Marseille.
On the other side, Roma was a much more defensive through the knockout stages, beating Vitesse by a 2-1 aggregate scoreline; a come-from-behind triumph to knock out Bodo/Glimt; and, then taking care of Premier League side Leicester City via a 2-1 aggregate margin in the semifinal round.
The clashing styles of the defensive-minded Mourinho — at least in knockout stage — and the stellar attack of Feyenoord make for a compelling European final and a great appetizer for Saturday’s Champions League title match.
Roma Seeking Tittle to Cap Stellar Run
Roma might not have qualified for the Champions League next season, but by team strength and expected goals difference, Mourinho’s side was one of the four best in Italy. Only AC Milan, Inter Milan and Napoli finished higher in the xG table. And actually, Roma was a bit unfortunate when you look at how it ran cold early in the season in terms of finishing variance.
The biggest question is how good Italy actually was , relative to the rest of Europe. Take a look:
- Milan and Atalanta crashed out in the UCL group stage
- Barcelona smashed Napoli
- Juventus suffered a 3-0 home loss against Villarreal to get knocked out
- Lazio went out early in the Europa League knockouts
That said, it seems pretty clear that the league is down based on performances and results in Europe the last couple seasons.
Roma excels on set pieces, where they produced the most goals and second most expected goals in all of Italy. If you take set pieces out of the equation, though, Mourinho’s side looks a bit more like the sixth placed team in both attack and defense.
They exploited a huge set piece edge to find the winner against Leicester City in the semifinal. Feyenoord does grade out better defensively than the Foxes did in dead ball situations. Although that comes with the caveat that it’s hard to have reliable data from the Eredivisie given the lack of real competition beyond PSV Eindhoven, AZ Alkmaar and Ajax.
Feyenoord Not Getting Deserved Respect
Feyenoord has been undervalued in the market for most of its run and that remains true. Most of that is due to its attack.
Ajax is widely regarded as the dominant team in the Netherlands by a wide margin. However, Feyenoord’s attack was so good that the gap in xG per match wasn’t actually that big. Ajax averaged 2.6 xG and Feyenoord produced 2.35 xG per match. That was better than PSV, which finished second in the league, yet was really the third best team.
FiveThirtyEight’s soccer power index rates the attack as the 14th best in the world. There’s plenty of noise in the SPI data, but there’s also a clear signal being picked up there. If that attack was dropped into Italy, the site believes only Inter would produce more.
The attack rates out better than Milan, Napoli, Juventus and Atalanta, which are teams Roma played against and struggled to defend for most of the season. Feyenoord proved in its home leg against Marseille, which features one of the four best defenses in France, that it can score goals on anyone.
What’s most to like about Feyenoord’s attacking talent is the age profile and depth. The club produced four players with at least nine goals, with 22-year-old Colombian Luis Sinisterra being one of the more promising young attackers in Europe. He’s taken a real leap this year and can cause problems for a Roma backline that has been prone to mistakes in and out of possession.
BJ Cunningham’s ECL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Roma clearly has the better defense and the experience of Mourinho definitely carries some weight in a European final. You can expect some nerves early on and likely a tentative start, but the best unit is Feyenoord’s attack. It has the firepower to hurt Roma if Mourinho is too conservative in his approach.
The Dutch side proved it can win in different ways when it kept a clean sheet in Marseille in the second leg as well, so I really don’t see much of a gap between the title hopefuls.
Roma will be the more public side because of its league and manager, but Feyenoord is once again not receiving enough respect. This is a toss-up final for me, as I don’t see much between the two clubs.
That said, I’ll take the quarter goal Feyenoord is getting via the Asian Handicap at -125 odds or better as my top pick.
From a total perspective, the narrative is always to play toward the under in a cup final. Yet, that seems priced in given the total is lower than you’d expect for Feyenoord. I’m passing there, but would lean to the over if anything.
Pick: Feyenoord +0.25 (-125 or better)
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