Thursday Europa League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sevilla vs. Roma (August 6)

Sevilla vs. Roma Odds

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Sevilla and Roma meet up Thursday evening in a Round of 16, winner-take-all match in the Europa League. Both clubs have been in good form, and this should be the best match on Thursday's slate.

Players are missing from both squads, which makes this tough to handicap. The key will be the contrasts in style and which team ends up controlling the style of play.

Sevilla

Sevilla finished fourth in La Liga, qualifying for next year's Champions League during a successful campaign, where they tied Atletico Madrid on points — which would have been a surprise to many when the season started.

Sevilla are a solid club, that has relied on clean sheets and keeping opponents at bay; they are giving up just 0.96 xGA/game for the full season. Their advanced metrics highlight this recently as well. Since the restart, they have allowed 0.79 xGA/game. They scored 1.45 xG/game over the season, and 1.27 since the restart. The club is missing some key pieces, but should still be favorites.

Since this is an elimination game, I see this as a cagey first half, and strategic adjustments in the second half. La Liga is a higher quality league than Serie A, and Sevilla should have the advantage here. They should control the style of play, and we should see a more pragmatic game plan from both clubs.

Roma

Roma finished fifth in Serie A, qualifying for next year's Europa League (a top-six finish is right where the club should be) and they play a different style compared to Sevilla.

The club scored 2.10 xG/game over the course of the season, but also conceded 1.34 xGA/game. Serie A is less defensive now than it used to be, and Roma's advanced metrics bare that out. You would have been successful blindly betting the over in their games since the restart as 10-of-12 games had three or more goals.

Since the restart, Roma have 2.00 xG/game and concede 1.33 xGA/game. When Roma is on, you should expect to see an open game with goals. However, Roma are missing some players and face a Sevilla side that will be tough to break down.

Due to multiple factors (rest, squad depth, overall talent level), I see Sevilla controlling the style of this match, which means we could see a lower scoring match. Roma have been playing non-stop for the past month, while Sevilla have had a bit of a breather.

Both clubs have players missing, but Sevilla has more depth. La Liga is higher quality than Serie A, and Sevilla was a clear top-four club, while Roma was floating around seventh most of the year. All of these reasons point me to the under in the first half and full game.

Under 1 first half and under 2.5 both at around -120 seem like good value. I would bet both up to -130.

Picks: 1H under 1 -120 | full game under 2.5 -124

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