Europa League Round of 16: Second Leg Odds and Betting Breakdowns

Europa League Round of 16: Second Leg Odds and Betting Breakdowns article feature image

Reuters. Pictured: Chelsea’s Olivier Giroud and Ross Barkley

  • Chelsea and Napoli are well-positioned to reach the Europa League Quarterfinals, but Arsenal find themselves down 3-1 heading into Thursday's second leg home match against Rennes (4 p.m. ET on Galavision, B/R Live and fuboTV).
  • Odds have been on the move in each of the eight match-ups and we've broken down the betting market to identify where the value lies.

Four of the eight Europa League Round of 16 matchups are considered toss-ups based on current odds to advance, so there’s a lot to look forward to on Thursday:

Odds to Advance

Arsenal opened as the biggest favorites to advance in the Europa League Round of 16, but lost at Rennes, 3-1, in the opening leg. The Gunners are now even money to progress to the quarterfinals with home-field advantage on Thursday.

The other two largest favorites, Chelsea and Napoli, won by 3-0 home margins and appear to be well on their way to the next round. Inter Milan, Sevilla and Benfica have all decreased to -110 after opening above -225.

Chelsea at Dynamo Kiev, 1:55 p.m. ET (Chelsea lead 3-0)

History is on Chelsea’s side as 90% of teams to score 3-plus goals in the opening leg have gone on to advance.

Chelsea are still favorites to win the tournament as they’ve been throughout, and are now listed at +290 odds:

For the second leg in Kiev, Chelsea have remained steady in the +120 range despite attracting nearly 80% of bets. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dynamo Kiev earn a victory in the second leg even if advancing is unattainable at 33-1 odds.

Napoli at Red Bull Salzburg, 1:55 p.m. ET (Napoli lead 3-0)

Only one club has managed to overcome a 3-0 deficit in the home return leg in 43 instances, and that was Valencia over Basel in 2013-14.

Salzburg are actually the ‘favorites’ to win the second leg at +140 odds, but are still 14-1 longshots to advance. They will have to go for it at home against a Napoli squad with suspensions and injuries in the center of their defense, so this game has goals written all over it. Even with the over/under set at 3, I love the value on the over at +115 odds.

Valencia at Krasnodar, 1:55 p.m. ET (Valencia lead 2-1)

Krasnodar picked up a vital away goal in the opening leg to make this match-up very interesting heading back to Russia. In Europa League history, 42% of teams have managed to progress after losing the first leg on the road by a 2-1 scoreline.

However, the second leg moneyline has moved toward Valencia (+155 to +140) as Krasnodar have been in poor form lately, winless in nine straight matches across all competitions. The Spanish side should have enough to win/draw and progress to the quarterfinals.

Rennes at Arsenal, 4 p.m. ET (Rennes lead 3-1)

Arsenal are -325 moneyline favorites to win the second leg at home and -1.5 on the spread. A two-plus goal victory is required from the Gunners to have any chance of advancing, and they’ll be aided by the return of striker Alexander Lacazette following a rescinded suspension.

Arsenal are a difficult club to play on their home turf, and they’ll likely control most of the possession. Fortunately they were able to grab an away goal in the first leg so conceding in the second leg will not be much of a concern. With the Gunners pushing forward the entire match, they should create plenty of chances to win and advance.

Frankfurt at Inter Milan, 4 p.m. ET (Tied 0-0)

Sixteen of 26 Europa League sides have advanced when taking a 0-0 draw back home in the second leg which is what Inter Milan will try to do Thursday night.

Oddsmakers view this is a toss-up with each club listed at -110 to qualify for the next round. Nearly 80% of the public betting action has come in on Inter Milan to win the return leg yet they’ve drifted all the way from -115 to +130 since opening.

There’s been plenty of sharp money on Frankfurt to come away with a result and the German side is unbeaten in eleven consecutive games across all competitions. Despite not having the name recognition, Frankfurt appear to be the smart side to advance to the Europa League quarterfinals.

Zenit St. Petersburg at Villarreal, 4 p.m. ET (Villarreal lead 3-1)

Villarreal came away from Russia with a 3-1 road win and should have no trouble advancing with the return leg at home. Public bettors have been all over Villarreal to win again, but that may be bit risky considering a draw or one-goal loss still sends them through automatically.

Sevilla at Slavia Prague, 4 p.m. ET (Tied 2-2)

Sevilla have been the Europa League kings in recent years, but they were held to a 2-2 draw against Slavia Prague in the Round of 16 opening leg at home. Just 19% of teams (3 of 16) have advanced when taking this exact scoreline on the road.

Despite the historical odds against them, Sevilla still find themselves with ~50% chance of advancing. Early smart money on Sevilla also shifted the second leg moneyline from +120 to +105 and public bettors have followed suit. Sportsbooks around the market will certainly be rooting for Slavia Prague to knock off one of the tournament favorites.

Dinamo Zagreb at Benfica, 4 p.m. ET (Zagreb lead 1-0)

Benfica need to overturn 1-0 deficit and are heavy -225 favorites to win the return leg at home. Public bettors are liking the idea of Zagreb in the +650 range, but the only line movement to report has been on Benfica (-225) and those odds will likely rise until kickoff.

Value Plays

  • Salzburg-Napoli Over 3 (+115)
  • Arsenal -1.5 (-105) vs. Rennes
  • Arsenal to advance (+105)
  • Frankfurt to advance (-110)
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