FA Cup Final Betting Odds, Preview: Public Backing Watford as Big Underdog vs. Man City

FA Cup Final Betting Odds, Preview: Public Backing Watford as Big Underdog vs. Man City article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City celebrating

  • Manchester City are trying to become the first English team to win the domestic treble and will play Watford in the FA Cup Final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday, May 18 at 12 p.m. ET (ESPN+).
  • Public bettors are taking a shot on big underdogs Watford, but sharp money is backing Man City to lift another trophy.

Manchester City are aiming for the domestic treble after already winning the Premier League and League Cup this season.

Three clubs have won the FA Cup and top flight competition in England: Arsenal (1992-93), Liverpool (2000-01) and Chelsea (2006-07), but none have captured all three titles in the same season.

Man City would become the first English team to pull off the feat and are currently listed at -850 odds (about an 89.5% implied probability) to do so.

Odds to Win the FA Cup

  • Manchester City -850
  • Watford +575

Manchester City were available at +250 odds before their fourth round match against Burnley and +125 prior to Newport County in the fifth round. They then went on to sneak past Swansea City in the quarterfinal and Brighton in the semifinal, both by one-goal margins.

Watford’s path was much more difficult, defeating Woking, Newcastle, QPR, Crystal Palace and Wolves to reach the final against Man City.

Betting Odds (90 Minutes Regulation)

  • Manchester City -430
  • Watford +1130
  • Draw +580
  • Over/Under 3 (o-118)

According to oddschecker.com, more than half the moneyline bets have come in on Watford (+1130) to pull off the shocker. However, sportsbooks around the market don’t appear to be too worried about those casual bettors since the line has shifted toward Man City from -375 to -430 since opening.

Man City have been responsible for about 35% of wagers and only 8% is taking the match to go into extra time at +580 odds.

In the totals market, the over (3) has seen some sharp money and juice has been adjusted from -104 to -118.

Based on the odds, the most likely scorelines are Man City 2-0, Man City 3-0, Man City 1-0, Man City 2-1, Man City 4-0 and Man City 3-1.

Watford have lost 10 straight matches against Man City in all competitions, conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game. Their last victory head-to-head was back in March of 1989, a winless streak of 15 games.

Injury News

Manchester City:

  • PROBABLE – Fernandinho (knee)
  • PROBABLE – Kevin de Bruyne (hamstring)
  • PROBABLE – Benjamin Mendy (knee)
  • OUT – Claudio Bravo (Achilles)


  • PROBABLE – Gerard Deulofeu (leg)
  • PROBABLE – Jose Holebas (suspension overturned)
  • OUT – Domingos Quina (shoulder)
  • OUT – Sebastian Prodl (knee)


In a weird way, the pressure is now off of Manchester City after they edged past Liverpool by a single point to win the Premier League title. Goals haven’t exactly been flying in for Pep Guardiola’s squad, but I’d count on City finding the back of the net plenty on Saturday.

Give me Manchester City to win 3-0 or 3-1 for the coveted English treble, so -1.5 goals (-140) is the bet.