Leeds United vs. West Ham United Friday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 11)
Daniel Leal-Olivas/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standouts Patrick Bamford, left, and Jack Harrison.
- Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds United will host West Ham United for a Friday afternoon Premier League match.
- Leeds are slight favorites over the Hammers at Elland Road, but Jeremy Pond thinks the best betting avenue is targeting the total.
Leeds vs. West Ham Odds
|Leeds Odds||+117 [BET NOW]|
|West Ham Odds||+220 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+265 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165/-132) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
Old foes rekindling their Premier League rivalry go at it Friday when Leeds United hosts West Ham United at Elland Road.
It has been close to two decades since these sides have met on Leeds’ home soil in England’s top flight. The Peacocks secured a 1-0 victory over the Hammers in that 2003 match, so I’m sure both supporters at both clubs are looking forward to this long-awaited meeting.
Leeds enter this contest in quite a rut, winning just one of its last five league fixtures. The Peacocks, who earned a 1-0 over Everton two back for that lone victory, are currently in 14th place on 14 points.
On the other side, West Ham are playing a solid brand of soccer at the moment. The Hammers, winners of three of their last five games, are in eighth place on 17 points. A win could move West Ham up to as high as fifth in the standings.
Let’s take a look at these clubs and see what could be on deck in this affair.
If you haven’t watched a Peacocks’ match this season, do yourself a favor. Take the time and enjoy what manager Marcelo Bielsa’s side brings to the table every time it hits the pitch.
It doesn’t matter if it’s top-of-the-table Tottenham Hotspur or last-place Sheffield United standing the way. Bottom line, Leeds are coming for you.
Case in point being last week’s match against powerhouse Chelsea. Patrick Bamford got the Peacocks on the board four minutes in, scoring his fifth goal in six games to give them an early 1-0 lead. Unfortunately for Bielsa’s troops, that didn’t hold up, with the Blues reeling off three unanswered goals en route to an easy 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge.
Leeds has the potential to make some big waves in this contest, knowing a win would put it level on points with West Ham and likely vault the Peacocks into the top-10 on the table.
When it comes to the advanced metrics, Leeds has put accumulated some pretty crazy numbers taking us to both ends of the statistical spectrum.
The Peacocks boast a stellar 19.1 xGs, which is good enough for second overall in the league. However, they also possess a brutal 20.5 expected goals against that is 19th out of 20 teams in the category.
Those numbers result in a disappointing -1.4 xGDiff and -0.13 for xGDiff/90 minutes, putting Leeds smack dab in the middle of the rankings.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Manager David Moyes has things going along pretty well at the club, thanks to a solid offensive attack and stingy defense leading the way.
West Ham were hoping to make it four league wins in a row when it faced Manchester United last time out, with things getting off on the right foot via a 38th-minute strike from Tomáš Souček that gave it a 1-0 lead.
The Hammers maintained that advantage until midway through the second half when the Red Devils stuck for three goals in a 13-minute span, delivering the hosts a 3-1 loss at London Stadium.
As for the data comparison to Leeds in similar categories, West Ham has had a better go of it overall on the numbers. The Hammers sit on a modest 15.5 xGs and respectable 14.8 expected goals against, generating in a +0.7 xGDiff and +0.07 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Needless to say, West Ham holds the slightest edge on the stats. Yet, the fact this game is on Leeds’ home turf basically makes this a wash in my opinion.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This match really has the makings of being an exciting, back-and-forth tussle. These clubs both get after it, which has be forecasting this be a game full of offensive chances from combatants.
That said, I am backing the total to go over the number in this spot. West Ham is conceding just under 1.3 goals per match, plus it’s coming off that drubbing against Chelsea that really exposed some of its flaws on the pitch.
Add in the fact Leeds has arguably the league’s worst defense, and there’s a chance the scoreboard operator is going to have a busy night at the office.
I will also play Bamford to score any time as well. The Peacocks’ star might be in career form, so we look to see him keep his hot streak going in this match.
Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-165) | Patrick Bamford (Leeds) To Score: Yes (+118)