Southampton vs. Leicester City Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction (Friday, April 30)

Southampton vs. Leicester City Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction (Friday, April 30) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City standout Kelechi Iheanacho.

  • Southampton welcomes Leicester City to St Mary's Stadium for Friday's Premier League match.
  • The Foxes, currently in third place in the table, would love to grab all three points to extend their lead in the Champions League race.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the contest below and explains why he's backing Leicester City to grab the road victory.

Southampton vs. Leicester City Odds

Southampton Odds +220
Leicester City Odds +108
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-124 / +100)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Thursday afternoon via DraftKings.

Premier League clubs that met just a little more than a week ago battle again Friday when reeling Southampton hosts Leicester City in a crucial showdown.

The Foxes enter this contest fresh off a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace, marking their third triumph in a row. Kelechi Iheanacho’s gem of a strike in the 80th minute led the club, which sits in third place on 62 points and four clear of Chelsea. Those sides currently hold the final two spots for next season’s Champions League, but will have to fend off West Ham United and Liverpool.

In contrast, the Saints are a hot mess and looking to snap a three-game losing streak on home soil at St Mary’s Stadium. Southampton was dealt its latest defeat on April 21 when Son Heung-min’s penalty in the 90th minute lifted Tottenham Hotspur to a 2-1 triumph.

Can Leicester City, which earned a 1-0 win over Southampton in the FA Cup semifinal round on April 18, complete the season sweep in this latest meeting? Let’s take a look and see what could be on deck.

Southampton

The Saints’ season has been on a downward spiral since the end of January following their 3-1 home defeat to Arsenal. Since that setback, Southampton has lost 12 of its last 17 matches across all competitions.

The lowlight in that span was the infamous 9-0 shellacking delivered by Manchester United on Feb. 2 at Old Trafford. The Red Devils held a stunning 3.7-0.5 edge in expected goals in that contest, which featured the Saints having two players sent off with red cards. Alexandre Jankewitz’s dismissal in the second minute obviously changed the game’s entire complexion.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Now, it looks as if Southampton is just going through the motions and looking forward to the offseason. The club is in no danger of being relegated since it’s sitting nine points clear of 18th-place Fulham in the league table. That said, I’m not sure what (if any) kind of motivation surrounds this side with just five league matches left on the schedule.

Southampton probably deserved better in that loss to Tottenham, but the defense couldn’t keep its foe from snatching all the points via Son’s late winner. Danny Ings scored the Saints’ lone goal, but he could miss out on this affair after picking up a knock in that match.

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Leicester City

The Foxes continue to keep pushing onward, grabbing the necessary results to land their spot in the European football next season. They’ve been on point in their last three wins, albeit coming against the likes of West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace and this Southampton outfit.

Regardless, Leicester City isn’t the one making up the schedule or dictating who it has to play this late in the campaign. The Foxes still need to get the necessary results, which is exactly what manager Brendan Rodgers’ lads are doing at the moment.

Jamie Vardy continues to power the offensive attack, racking up a team-best 13 goals thus far. However, it has been the stellar play from Iheanacho that has made Leicester City even more dangerous going forward.

Defensively, the Foxes have continued to be on point and maintain their status as one of the best in England’s top flight. Leicester City, which ranks sixth overall in xGA (38.9), has stepped it up as of late. Longtime goaltender Kasper Schmeichel has recorded shutouts in two of his last three starts.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Once again, the story remains the same when handicapping these kinds of matches late in the season. Which team is motivated and needs a result more than the other? Suffice it to say, I think it’s laid out pretty well for you.

That said, I’m backing Leicester City to bag all three points on the road and will play it on the moneyline at +108 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. Home or away, these are points the Foxes simply can’t afford to drop with Chelsea and West Ham breathing down their necks.

I will also sprinkle a little on Leicester City’s team total going over 1.5 goals at plus money. The Foxes have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight games across all competitions, so that should spark confidence in this wager.

Picks: Leicester City ML (+108) | Leicester City Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+102)

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