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Inter Miami vs. New York Red Bulls Odds, Picks, Prediction: How to Bet Friday’s MLS Matchup (Sept. 17)

Inter Miami vs. New York Red Bulls Odds, Picks, Prediction: How to Bet Friday’s MLS Matchup (Sept. 17) article feature image

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Robbie Robinson #19 of Inter Miami.

  • Inter Miami will face the New York Red Bulls on Friday night in an MLS clash.
  • Miami enters the weekend in eighth place and one point out of the playoff picture while the Red Bulls are reeling.
  • Ian Quillen explains why he's backing the total in tonight's match.

Inter Miami vs. RBNY Odds

Inter Miami Odds+100
RBNY Odds+270
Over/Under2.5 (+120 / -160)
Day | TimeFriday | 7 p.m. ET
How To WatchFS1 | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Playoff chasers Inter Miami look for a fourth consecutive win when they host a fading New York Red Bulls side on Friday night.

After spending several weeks in the basement of the Eastern Conference standings, Miami enters the weekend in eighth place and one point out of the playoff race following Tuesday’s 1-0 win at Toronto.

The Red Bulls have just one victory in their last 11 matches and are in danger of seeing their run of 11 consecutive postseason appearances come to an end after Tuesday’s deflating 2-1 loss at Columbus.

This is the first meeting these two teams after severe weather forced a previously scheduled July encounter to be postponed until October. So where’s the value in this match? Let’s take a look.

Can Inter Miami Keep Rolling?

Manager Phil Neville’s side has won its past three by the same 1-0 scoreline, but certainly pushed its luck in the latest victory.

Several breaks went in Miami’s favor over 90 minutes, the most obvious coming when Jacob Shaffelburg’s shot was not ruled a goal for Toronto despite appearing to cross the line.

Referees judged that Nick Marsman had fractionally kept it out in real time. And on video review, there just weren’t definitive angles, even if it appeared very likely the call on the field was wrong.

Miami went on to win the match on a penalty in second-half stoppage time.

The win validated Neville’s decision to leave leading scorer Gonzalo Higuain off the traveling roster after he scored the winner against Montreal on Saturday. The 33-year-old isn’t on Miami’s injury report, meaning he should be in line to return to the starting XI following his rest day.

Defender Ryan Shawcross is listed as “day-to-day” on the club’s availability report for the second straight game after he did not make the game-day roster in Toronto.

Red Bulls Have Age Advantage

The Red Bulls are winless in their past five games on the road. But manager Gerhard Struber’s youthful squad deserved better than a fourth consecutive away defeat in their 2-1 loss in Columbus.

The visitors took the lead via Patryk Klimala in the 25th minute and weren’t often threatened in the opening hour.

But Darlington Nagbe headed in a rebound in the 74th minute and Miguel Berry scored in the 88th to complete Columbus’ comeback.

Believe it or not, Berry’s goal was only the third-latest match-winner the Red Bulls have conceded.

New England’s Adam Buksa and Montreal’s Victor Wanyama both hit match-winners in second-half stoppage time during New York’s 11-game slide.

The Red Bulls’ youth might be a strength on Friday though, as both teams fight the fatigue of playing a third match in seven days.

The average age of New York’s starters is the youngest in MLS by more than a year at 22.9 years old, according to Transfermarkt.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Intuitively, this feels like there might be value on the visitors here, though I’m surprised the line hasn’t moved more in Miami’s direction.

Since it hasn’t, I’m drawn to play the over instead because this is yet another clash of two teams who tend to play differently at home versus away. (I played the under in Miami’s win in Toronto for the same reason.)

For New York, the total has exceeded 2.5 goals in seven of its 11 road matches. The expected goals (xG) total has averaged 3.0.

This is a pattern you might expect with a high pressing team like RBNY that tries to let opponents possess more of the ball. Those opponents often seek more possession in home games, where they feel more pressure to seek three points instead of one.

For Miami, the total has exceeded 2.5 goals in eight of 12 home matches. The xG total is 2.5 from those 12 games.

The latter trend isn’t quite as pronounced. But the convergence is still strong enough that I feel comfortable playing the over here at +120 and up to +100, an implied 50% probability.

It certainly helps that Higuain — who is sitting on nine goals — is well-rested.

Pick: Total over 2.5 goals

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