Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich Betting Preview: Updated Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Marvin Ibo Guengoer – GES Sportfoto/Getty Images. Pictured: Bayern Munich teammates celebrate a goal.
- Serie A powerhouse Inter Milan hosts Bundesliga giant Bayern Munich in Wednesday's Champions League showdown.
- The German side is a heavy favorite to win the match, but analyst Nick Hennion has found value on the total.
- Check out below which side he has landed on ahead of this meeting.
Inter vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-120|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+128 / -156)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Former Champions League winners will clash at San Siro Stadium on Wednesday when as Group C favorite Bayern Munich faces Inter Milan in their opening clash.
The Bavarian giants arrive at this fixture unbeaten to start their Bundesliga season, while Inter enters this match off a 3-2 defeat against AC Milan. That marked the Italian side’s second defeat in five Serie A matches.
These clubs last met in the 2011 Champions League Round of 16, with Inter advancing to the quarterfinals on road goals. In the 2010 Champions League finale, Inter also handed Bayern a 2-0 loss.
Despite staggering out of the gate in the Italian top flight, Inter actually qualifies as a positive regression candidate entering this fixture.
Through five matches, manager Simone Inzaghi's side has a +3 goal differential on a +8 big scoring chances differential. Just at home, the Nerazzurri have scored six goals on seven big chances in two fixtures.
Plus, the Inter attack excelled last season in the Champions League group stage while coming up particularly unlucky. In six group matches, the 2020-21 Serie A victors scored eight goals on 12.5 expected goals and generated at least two xG in four of six group fixtures, albeit in an easier quartet.
By The Numbers
- T-2nd — Inter big scoring chances ranking this season.
- 1.8— Inter’s xG per 90 minutes against Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk in last season's UCL action.
After selling talisman Robert Lewandowski this summer, Bayern Munich's attack has quelled any concerns of a letdown.
Through its first five Bundesliga fixtures, manager Julian Nagelsmann's side has generated 22 big scoring chances. The frightening aspect? Bayern has scored only 17 goals on those 22 big chances.
Further, Nagelsmann's side arrives at this Champions League fixture on a great offensive run in the competition. Through its last 18 UCL group matches, only three teams have managed to hold Bayern under 1.5 xG in the process.
By The Numbers
- +3 — Bayern big scoring chances differential minus its actual goal differential.
- 2.63 — The Bavarians’ xG/90 minutes last season against Barcelona and Benfica in the UCL group stage.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With both sides playing on short rest, I expect a rip-roaring fixture in Milan.
Although it came up unlucky based on big chances, this is still an Inter defense that allowed two big chances to AC Milan over the weekend. Seeing as I power-rate Bayern's attack ahead of the host side, I foresee the Inter defense struggling to contain its opponent again.
That said, it's my opinion this is a good sell-high spot on the Bayern defense. With respect to Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin, this will be the best attack the Bavarians have faced all season.
Combine that fact with Inter's stellar home offensive record in both Serie A and Champions League, and I expect there will be goal participation from both sides.
It's a high number to clear, but I show slight value on the total price — my numbers make over 3.5 goals at +115 odds. Based on that discrepancy, I'll back the total clearing over 3.5 goals as my top pick.
The Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+128)