La Liga Odds, Picks and Predictions: How to Bet Real Betis vs. Granada (Monday, June 15)

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Granada at Real Betis Odds and Picks

Granada odds +310
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Real Betis odds -107
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Draw odds +245
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Over/Under 2.5 (+104/-129)
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Time Monday, 4 p.m. ET
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Just a few days after their come-from-behind win over Getafe, Granada heads to the Estadio Benito Villamarín to take on Real Betis on Monday afternoon.

The victory over Getage has given Granda’s Europa League hopes new life while Real Betis doesn’t have all that much to play for after falling to their rivals, Sevilla, on Thursday.

Los Verdiblancos are eight points above the relegation zone but don’t have a chance to qualify for European football in 2020-21.

Real Betis

It’ll be interesting to see how motivated Real Betis are for this match given where they are at in the table and the fact that they are coming off a loss to their main rival. In fact, Real Betis’ loss to Sevilla continued a poor run of form that dates back to before the world came to a halt.

Los Verdiblancos have only taken six of a possible 24 points over their last eight matches, though three of those points came in a shock win over Real Madrid in their last game before the season paused.

The good news for Real Betis backers is that 24 of their 33 points this season have come at home where Los Verdiblancos boast a +7.07 expected goal differential.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Real Betis typically play out of  4-1-4-1 formation, which allows the wingers to roam the field and be creative in attack. It also allows a team to keep its shape and stay compact in defense. Betis have a -1.34 xG differential when they play out of the 4-1-4-1 this season,

Granada

Granada now find themselves in the hunt for a Europa League spot and are just five points behind sixth-place Atletico Madrid.

Los Nazaríes have not been great on the road this season but most of their struggles have come against the top of table.

Granada have only earned one point and have been outscored, 19-7, in eight matches against the top half of La Liga on the road. On the other hand, they have earned 11 points and boast a +0.90 xG differential in six road matches against the bottom half of the circuit.

Unlike Betis, Los Nazaríes have been in a really good run of form. Granada are unbeaten in their last five matches and are generating 1.68 expected goals per match over their last six contests. That represents a significant uptick for Granada, who create 1.14 expected goals per game this season.

Previous Meeting

Granada won the reverse fixture, 1-0, back in October. As shown by the expected goals report, Los Nazaríes thoroughly dominated Real Betis and deserved the victory.

Analysis

Bookmakers have underrated Granada all season long and this match is no different. Based on my model I have this game closer to a pick’em:

  • Real Betis projected odds: +143 (41.10% win probability)
  • Real Betis projected xG: 1.29
  • Granada projected odds: +218 (31.45%)
  • Granada projected xG: 1.12
  • Draw projected odds: +264 (27.45%)

I think there’s plenty of value on an underrated and motivated Granada team against Real Betis on Monday.

Pick: Granada +0.5 (-112)

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