La Liga Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Sevilla vs. Real Madrid (Saturday, Dec. 5)

Sevilla vs. Real Madrid Odds

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Real Madrid looks to end their terrible run of form on Saturday when they battle Sevilla.

Real Madrid comes into this match reeling after losing at home to Alaves last Saturday and to Ukrainian club Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on Wednesday. They currently sit in fourth place in the league, but are six points behind league leaders Real Sociedad. They need all three points on Saturday or they’ll be dropping outside the top four.

Sevilla comes into this match on the backs of three straight wins in La Liga; however it was against the bottom of table. They also got drilled in their Champions League match on Wednesday, as Oliver Giroud bagged four goals in rout to a 4-0 Chelsea victory. Sevilla hasn’t faced a team ahead of them in the table yet this season, so this will be their toughest match in Spain to date.

Sevilla

Los Nervionenses have been one of the best defensive teams in the league since the restart last season. Sevilla has allowed 0.86 xG per match, which is second only to Atletico Madrid in La Liga. However, the offense has struggled to generate high quality chances, as they are only averaging 1.49 xG per match, which ranks eighth in La Liga.

In the six matches against the top four last season, Sevilla struggled mightily, losing the expected goals battle 8.11 to 10.73. Real Madrid swept the season series against them, as Los Nervionenses were only able to generate 1.04 xG total over the two matches. Even though Real Madrid is in a bad run of form, Sevilla is going to need to be at their best if they want to take down the Spanish giants.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid’s bad run of form could not have come at a worse time. With the loss to Shakhtar, they are now in danger of falling into the Europa League if they do not beat Gladbach on Wednesday. However, this match against Sevilla is going to require their full attention given their standing in the La Liga table.

The issues certainly haven’t been on the offensive side of the ball, as Los Blancos are averaging 1.91 xGF in La Liga play this season. Their main issues have been with their defense. Real Madrid have allowed 1.38 xG in La Liga play and are going through some injuries at the moment, as Sergio Ramos has been absent from their last three matches since injuring his hamstring on international duty.

There are reports that Ramos gathered the team for a players only meeting on Thursday. The Real Madrid captain is trying to help lift his squad out of this bad run of form even though he can’t be on the field. Los Blancos absolutely need this match on Saturday, so I don’t expect them to take Sevilla lightly.

Projections and Pick

Even though Real Madrid has been in a bad run of form, I still think they should be favored in this match. Los Blancos should be giving this match their full attention or else they could potentially fall twelve points behind Real Soceidad in the league table.

I have Real Madrid’s Draw no Bet line projected at -133, so I think there is value on Los Blancos Draw no Bet at -105 (DraftKings).

Pick: Real Madrid Draw no Bet (-105)