Leeds United vs Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Preview

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Leeds United vs Liverpool Odds

Monday, Apr. 17
3 p.m. ET
USA Network

Leeds United Odds


Liverpool Odds

Over/Under3.5 (+140 / -167)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-152 / +117)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Liverpool head to Elland Road to take on Leeds United with their top four hopes hanging on by a thread.

Leeds are firmly in the relegation battle, but they did get a huge sigh of relief this weekend with Everton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City and Southampton all losing. Even if they lose this match, Leeds will still be above the relegation zone. However, any type of result especially against a big six side would be a massive boost to their chances at survival.

The Reds had their best offensive performance of the season on Sunday against Arsenal, but they were unable to fully complete the comeback and had to settle for just one point. Liverpool are now sitting with just 44 points and are 12 points behind fourth place Newcastle, so to say it's desperation time would be an understatement.

Leeds United Woeful on Defensive End

Since Javi Garcia has taken over at Leeds, they’ve been abysmal defensively. In his seven matches in charge they have allowed a whopping 14.9 xG. It hit rock bottom this past weekend when Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace put five in the back of the net against them.

Their pressing numbers are down a tad from what they were under Jesse Marsch because they’ve played a lot of top sides and are trying to have more defensive structure. It hasn’t worked because the roster as currently constructed is not set up to be a low block defensive type team, especially with Tyler Adams injured.

For the season, they've actually been very effective at preventing teams from building up against them, ranking second in PPDA, second on ball recoveries, ninth in progressive passes + dribbles allowed and 10th in xThreat. The problem is once teams get in or around their penalty area, more often than not it becomes a big scoring chance.

Leeds have a ton of attacking talent and has been playing fine offensively under Javi Garcia creating 7.8 xG in his seven matches in charge. They've been an average offense in the Premier League this season, ranking 10th npxG, 10th in xThreat and 10th in box entries.

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Liverpool an Easy Team to Understand

Liverpool had their best offensive performance of the season against Arsenal, creating 4.4 xG. The Reds have looked better and better offensively lately and Jurgen Klopp inverted Trent Alexander Arnold into the midfield against Arsenal, which provided Liverpool with more ball progression going forward.

Even though the Reds have gone through rough patches this season, this is still one of the best offenses in the Premier League. Having Luis Diaz healthy only makes this attack more dangerous and for Liverpool to be at their best the match has to be fast-paced and played in transition. That is the exact type of match where Leeds are at their best as well.

There are still real defensive issues for Liverpool. There were a comedy of errors that led to both Arsenal goals on Sunday and for the season Liverpool have conceded the fifth-most big scoring chances in the Premier League. They can’t counter-press the way that they used to and the team is not the same as it once was.

Leeds United vs Liverpool Pick

The tactical set up of these two teams should create an exciting match with a lot of chances at both ends. Both Leeds and Liverpool are much more effective offensively when playing in transition, but it's also their biggest downfall because both of these teams have been terrible defending in transition all season long.

Game state is very important in this one as well because Leeds being more passive and trying to maintain a solid defensive structure all gets thrown out the window if Liverpool score first. Leeds are then forced to start pressing high again and defend in transition with their best ball-stopper Tyler Adams not in the middle of the pitch.

I have 3.71 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3 (-113) 

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