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Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Matches Featuring PSG, Marseille & Monaco (Jan. 22-23)

Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Matches Featuring PSG, Marseille & Monaco (Jan. 22-23) article feature image
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Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé.

French footballing action marches on, with Ligue 1 getting set for another weekend of play.

All 20 teams will be playing games, creating some matchups that provide valuable opportunities. And despite just four of 10 contests finishing within a goal last week, there are reasons to believe these fixtures could be action-packed in the French top flight.

Without further ado, here are our best bets for the days ahead.

Ligue 1 Best Bets

Lens vs. Marseille

Lens Odds +155
Marseille Odds +175
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
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Lens has been in really nice form since the start of the new year, picking up wins against Rennes and Saint-Étienne, and advancing via penalty kicks past Lille in the French Cup. However, the club has been a bit fortunate to escape all of those matches with the three points or a progression in the cup.

In the 1-0 victory over Rennes, Lens amassed 0.58 expected goals, while conceding 0.33 xGA in the process. In the 2-1 victory over Saint-Étienne, Lens was actually at an xG deficit. That type of luck is due for regression, and Marseille is on the other end of the luck spectrum recently with a 1-1 draw against Lille in which it had 0.7 more xG overall.

Naturally, both clubs will see some regression to the mean in both directions soon, so from a numbers perspective this spot makes sense for Marseille. Additionally, Marseille has a 0.51 xG difference/game away from home, while Lens’ home xG differential is 0.73 this season.

When looking at recent form, that’s not enough of a difference to push me away from Marseille. I’m happy to back them here.

Pick: Marseille — Draw No Bet (-105)

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Montpellier vs. Monaco

Montpellier Odds +285
Monaco Odds +100
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:05 a.m. ET
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This is a line that doesn’t make much sense to me at all.

I understand that Teji Savanier will be missing the fixture, but that’s not going to solely impact this line that much and Monaco is being given a lot of credit despite not being a great side.

The home and away xG splits certainly don’t tell a picture that would result in Montpellier being placed at +285. The team has a 0.14 xG/game difference at the Mosson Stadium, while Monaco is averaging a 0.1 xG/game difference away from home.

Both sides come into the match likely without some players, as Aleksandr Golovin, Myron Boadu and Benoit Badiashile are all question marks for Monaco, among others.

Why the love for Monaco? I’m not entirely in agreement, but I’ll take the position on Montpellier as a result, and it’s one that I’m thrilled to be getting.

Pick: Montpellier +0.5 (-110)

PSG vs. Reims

PSG Odds -425
Reims Odds +1100
Draw +550
Over/Under 3.5 (+140 / -175)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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I haven’t been able to find the right side of a PSG total, but this is another spot where the advanced metrics point toward a total being the smart play.

Reims has scored the fifth-lowest goal total in Ligue 1, and it’s not surprising considering its chance creation numbers. At 1.13xG/game, Reims doesn’t offer itself many chances to seize, and with the fifth-worst conversion rate in the league at just 6.9 percent, it’s no wonder the goals don’t come.

Defensively, Reims is sound enough to be a solid mid-table team, but the attack hasn’t been there. And while PSG leads the league in goals scored with 42 (almost identical to the expected goals tally), it does concede chances at a higher rate than would be expected (1.31 xGA/game) this season.

While the splits on the totals of 2.5 and 3.5 don’t create a good spot to target, the under on Reims team total of 0.5 is appealing. The side generates less than 1 xG/game on the road and it will be dealing with one of the best defenses in the league.

Scoring will be difficult.

Pick: Reims — Under 0.5 Goals (-120)

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