Liverpool vs. Chelsea Odds & Betting Picks: Expect Tight, Low-Scoring Premier League Matchup (August 28)
Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Romelu Lukaku, left, celebrates a goal with teammate Kai Havertz.
- Premier League powerhouses Liverpool and Chelsea square off Saturday in a battle of unbeaten clubs.
- The Reds, who are slight favorites in this interesting affair, are coming off two impressive wins to start the season.
- Jeremy Pond takes a deep look at this game below and details where he finds the most value.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV|
|Odds updated Saturday morning via DraftKings.|
Historic Premier League clubs with title aspirations headline the Saturday card, as Liverpool welcomes Chelsea to Anfield for an early-season thriller.
There isn’t a whole lot separating these juggernauts, with both outfits starting the season 2-0 and yet to concede a goal. Neither side has looked anything but impressive, so we should be in for a tight, ultra-competitive meeting between two of my top-four championship contenders.
The Reds, who opened their campaign with a 3-0 victory over Norwich City, enter this clash off a 2-0 home shutout of Burnley. Portuguese international Diogo Jota scored goals in both matches for Liverpool, which seems to be playing with a chip on its shoulder in its quest to return to top-flight glory.
Things have been going just as well for Chelsea, though. The reigning Champions League winner stomped Crystal Palace on debut in a 3-0 win before cruising to a 2-0 victory against Arsenal at the Emirates.
This is going to be a battle of clubs competing on a level playing field, which makes it difficult to gauge how this first meeting of the season will go. However, the fact I’m off to an 11-2 start overall (9-0 on sides and totals) through two weeks of European domestic action has made it a little easier when it comes to taking a minor risk here.
That said, let’s take a look at where I landed in this contest and found value.
Liverpool Primed for Another Championship Run
If the Reds’ first two matches were any indication of how their season might go, the other top-tier clubs better beware. They’ve come to play and, in my opinion, their current +450 odds at DraftKings to win the title have solid value.
Much like its upcoming foe, Liverpool is dominating affairs in the metrics. The Reds stormed to a 2.9-0.7 xG advantage against the Clarets last time out, plus it held a 2.0-1.4 xG edge against the Canaries at Carrow Road.
Defensively, the return of star defender Virgin van Dijk is already reaping rewards. Manager Jürgen Klopp has seen his side allow just seven shots on target in two fixtures. Then, there’s the extremely interesting factoid that I came across that shows you how much of an impact van Dijk has had at Anfield. Suffice it to say, Liverpool is a different club when he’s on the pitch.
Virgil van Dijk has been playing for Liverpool for nearly 4 years and he's still never lost a Premier League game at Anfield 🤯
23 clean sheets
Man mountain 🏔 pic.twitter.com/wJX9vUyVTM
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) August 21, 2021
Offensively, Joto’s hot start is something no one should be surprised about. He’s going to get his chances with so much focus and attention put on teammates Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane in the club’s 4-3-3 formation that a 12- to 14-goal campaign shouldn’t be out of the question.
Mané struck for his first goal of the season against Burnley, and Salah opened his account with a goal against Norwich City. Toss in Roberto Firmino, who registered a goal against the Canaries, and Klopp has an array of weapons at his disposal in hopes of cracking the vaunted Chelsea defense.
Chelsea Maintaining Dominant Form This Season
Manager Thomas Tuchel and the Blues picked up right where they left off last season when they captured the Champions League crown. They’re in second place in the table, sitting right behind West Ham United due to the tiebreaker.
The addition of former Inter Milan striker Romelu Lukaku, who once played for the London outfit, has made them even more dangerous and was apparent in the convincing win over Arsenal. Lukaku scored a goal on debut for Chelsea, which finished the match with a convincing 2.9-0.3 edge in expected goals.
In their opener, the Blues received goals from Marcos Alonso, Christian Pulisic and Trevoh Chalobah to defeat Crystal Palace. They weren’t as dominate from a metrics standpoint, instead being utterly effective in winning the xG battle by a 0.9-0.3 margin.
As for Pulisic, the American international is still unavailable for Chelsea, having had a positive COVID-19 test result that puts his availability for the United States’ upcoming World Cup qualifying matches in jeopardy. The U.S. opens the octagonal with a Sept. 2 road fixture against El Salvador. Pulisic was named to 26-man roster, announced Friday by U.S. Soccer.
If you think the Blues could be up against it being away from home, you should think again. They have been fantastic on the road, going unbeaten in nine of their last 10 games outside Stamford Bridge.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This match was the hardest to handicap on my plate. And after combing through game statistics, advanced metrics and past performances, I’m honestly not sold on either side picking up the victory.
For that reason, I’m going to get a little frisky and back the Draw at +230 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. As previously mentioned, I’m playing with house money, so rather than take Liverpool (-130) or Chelsea (+100) on the Draw No Bet wager, it’s worth rolling the dice on a stalemate.
I will also jump on the total staying under 2.5 goals at -125 odds as a secondary wager. The Reds’ penchant for producing stellar defensive performances at Anfield has led me to this angle. That staunch backline has led to seven of Liverpool’s last eight contests on home soil to finish with less than three goals.
Pick: Draw (+230) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)