Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Value Sitting on Draw in Latest ‘El Trafico’ Affair (July 8)

LAFC vs. LA Galaxy Odds

Italian defensive star Giorgino Chiellini will make his debut for Los Angeles Football Club against the Los Angeles Galaxy on Friday, but it looks like Southern California will have to wait a bit longer to see Gareth Bale in action.

Bale's new manager Steve Cherundolo told reporters immigration paperwork was still ongoing for the Welsh former Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur star. And Cherundolo couldn't commit to whether Bale could be registered in time to join his new club.

That shouldn't impact LAFC too much, as the Black and Gold are solid leaders in the chase for the Supporters' Shield. That's even after a 1-0 loss at the Vancouver Whitecaps, in which Cherundolo heavily rotated his squad.

The Galaxy enter the weekend fourth in the Western Conference after a 4-0 home win over Montreal on Monday. They might also have the historical edge in this series, including two wins in 2022, with one each in league and U.S. Open Cup play.

Los Angeles Football Club

Last weekend's loss in Vancouver was just the second game in which LAFC trailed opponents in expected goals.

That's more of an indicator of the squad that dressed rather than a dip in form, with Carlos Vela, Brian Rodriguez and Diego Palacios left out. Officially, Vela and Rodriguez's absences were attributed to leg issues. However, after a busy stretch and with a trying summer in Bale's spotlight coming, it appeared more about rest.

The Black & Gold have won three consecutive home league games after a 2-1 loss to Austin FC. Banc of California Stadium is also the venue where LAFC has picked up all three victories in the MLS series against the Galaxy.

By The Numbers

• 23 of 35 — The proportion of LAFC's goals scored after halftime this season.
• 3-1-0 — Record (W-L-Dl) when Vela scores a goal.

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Los Angeles Galaxy

After weeks of pleading from fans, manager Greg Vanney finally started strikers Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez and Dejan Joveljic together last Monday. And did it ever work.

Each player scored before halftime and defensive midfielder Rayan Raveloson added a second-half brace in what might have been the Galaxy's best performance of the season.

That formation came partly by necessity, with wingers Douglas Costa and Kevin Cabral serving one-match, red card suspensions.

Both should be available and defending LAFC out of a 4-4-2 formation is a different propositon all together. So, how the Galaxy line up will be of particular curiosity.

By The Numbers

• 1.46 — Average goals per 90 minutes for Joveljic across 15 appearances (13 as a substitute) for the Galaxy.
• 5-1-0 — Los Angeles’ record (W-L-D) when Chicharito scores this season.

BJ Cunningham's MLS Model Projections

Betting Analysis & Picks

Historical trends sometimes matter more in derbies because they're more likely to impact the psychology of a game.

For that reason alone, I think you have to take a shot on the a draw. These teams have shared the points five times in 13 meetings, all three of those coming at Banc of America Stadium. At +280 odds and a 26.3% probability, that's an obvious value if you believe these clubs will continue to share points.

As far as a bet based on what has occurred this season, there's an opportunity playing the Galaxy to score first. Vanney's side is a counterpuncher, and as such, it has often been the team to open the scoring (five in seven games) on the road.

Cherundolo's group is more possession-based and does more of damage by wearing the opposition down. This at least partly explains how it conceded first in half of its 10 home games, despite winning seven of them.

The price on the Galaxy at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability is well better than those trends. And those trends are based in how these teams operate, which means they should still have value going forward.

The Picks: Draw (+280) | First to Score — Los Angeles Galaxy (+135)