Man City vs Fulham Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Betting Analysis

Saturday, Sep. 2

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Man City Odds	-600
Fulham Odds	+1400
Draw	+700
Over / Under	3.5  +104 /-128

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Man City look to extend their lead at the top of the table when they host Fulham at the Etihad.

City needed a late Rodri goal to win 2-1 at Sheffield United last weekend, but it was a crucial three points to give them an early two-point lead at the top of the table. The Cityzens are dealing with some injuries to key players, but they will likely cruise past Fulham.

The Cottagers pulled of a smash and grab to rescue a point against Arsenal with a Palhinha goal off of a set piece when they were already down a man. They have been running ridiculously hot since the start of last season, but all this negative regression is going to hit then like a ton of bricks at some point in the future.

Here is my Man City vs Fulham pick and Premier League preview.

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Fulham are still an absolute mess defensively. Through three match weeks against Everton, Brentford and Arsenal, they have conceded 9.5 xG, 53 shots and 115 touches in their penalty area. 

I do not know how Bernd Leno is running this hot in net. Last season he had a +9.0 post shot xG +/- and this season he’s already at +3.7 through three matches, which is just insane. Tim Ream will be returning from red card suspension, and Palhinha being back in the lineup obviously helps make their mid-block effective, but Calvin Bassey got a red card against Arsenal, which means Fulham will be thin in their back line. 

How do they stop Manchester City? I have no idea. Last season against the big six they conceded 27 xG in 12 matches and so far this season they’ve shown no competence in defending around their penalty area. 

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Manchester City could pick their score here even though they are a bit limited in their attack. The absence of Kevin De Bryune has been pretty big for them, but for this match specifically and breaking down a low block the combination of Alvarez, Foden, Grealish, and Silva should be sufficient. 

What City have shown us so far this season is that Pep Guardiola is going back to his old habits and valuing game control over anything else. Manchester City are playing a 4-2-3-1 with Rodri and Kovacic who are defensive-minded midfielders and two of the best at controlling possession.

City are going to be able to build out of the back with ease because Fulham are not going to press them. So, it will be up to City to break down Fulham's low block. They are the best in the world at doing so with the best striker on the planet in Erling Haaland, who already has already scored three goals and created 3.1 xG in three matches.

Manchester City will create 2.5+ xG in this match and I am not sure how Fulham are going to do anything offensively. Last season in this fixture at the Etihad, Fulham played up a man for 64 minutes and scored a penalty, but outside of that one penalty they were only able to muster two more shots and create 0.3 xG from open play. Then in the other fixture at Craven Cottage, Fulham took just four shots and created just 0.2 xG. 

Fulham are going to get Tim Ream back for this match, but their defense is an absolute mess at the moment. They're being propped up by Bernd Leno saving more than a goal per 90 minutes than he should be, which is not going to continue for much longer. This has City 5-0 written all over it.

I have Manchester City’s spread projected at -2.53, so I like the value on City -2.5 at +120.

Pick: Manchester City -2.5 (+120 via bet365)