Man United vs Galatasaray Odds & Picks: Target Tuesday’s Total

Man United vs Galatasaray Odds & Picks: Target Tuesday’s Total article feature image

Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Mauro Icardi.

Man United vs Galatasaray Odds

Tuesday, Oct. 3
3 p.m. ET
Man United Odds-222
Galatasaray Odds+550
Over / Under
 -188 / +140
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

After yet another defeat, Man United look to bounce back with three points when they host Galatasaray.

They beat Crystal Palace in the League Cup on Tuesday, but Manchester United followed that up with a 1-0 loss at home, dropping them into the bottom half of the Premier League table. Turmoil would be putting it lightly for what is happening at Manchester United at the moment with all of the off the field issues compounded with an increasingly long injury list. Erik Ten Hag is starting to feel the heat and needs a positive result or United will continue in a tail spin.

Galatasaray notched two late goals to rescue a draw with Copenhagen in their first Champions League match. The Turkish champions have spent a lot of money to assemble a squad of experienced players who have played at top clubs all around Europe and specifically in the Champions League to give them a real shot at getting to the round of 16. This will be the first big test as to whether all of this talent they assembled can hang with one of the biggest clubs in the world.

Here is my preview for Man United vs Galatasaray, as well as my pick.

Man United

The problems with Manchester United are very clear and evident right now and they start with their injury list. Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are all out for an extended period of time. So, in the 1-0 loss to Crystal Palace, Mason Mount returned to the lineup, playing in the number eight role, while Sofyan Amarabat moved to play left back. Raphael Varane and Victor Lindelof were the center back pairing. That's not exactly ideal if you are trying to build out from the back or even defend an above average offense.

Against Crystal Palace, United controlled 77% of the possession and took 19 shots, but not one of those shots had an xG rating above 0.20. That was a different scenario though as Crystal Palace scored early and sat in a low defensive block for a remainder of the match. In this match they will be afforded space against Galatasaray, who like to press high and create a very open end to end style match.

Ten Hag has come out and said we want to make United into the best transitional team in the world. The signings this summer of Mount, Hojland, Amarbat, Onana and company have all been made to play that specific style. The problem is that they are relying on Casemiro to be their only cover for transitional moments, so if he isn’t completely on his game, United are left extremely exposed in transitional moments. This aggressive style can work against smaller sides, but Galatasaray are a team that can exploit you in transition.

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Galatasaray was busy this summer. Here is the list of players they brought in who have a ton of experience playing in one of Europe’s top five leagues: Wilfred Zaha, Davinson Sanchez, Kerem Demirbay, Tete, Angelino, Tanguy Ndombélé and Hakim Ziyech. That adds to their roster that already has Marco Icardi and a whole host of other players where Galatasaray quite frankly don't have a weakness on the pitch.

They won the Turkish Super Lig last season, putting up a +1.16 xGD in what is now by UEFA coefficients and total league transfer value a top 10 league in Europe. They changed managers in the middle of the season last year, bringing in Okan Buruk, who completely changed how they were playing. Buruk has had a lot of success in Turkish football as he led Istanbul Basaksehir to their first ever league title during the 2019-2020 season.

Galatasaray play out of a 4-4-2 mid-block, utilizing pressing triggers to try and win the ball high to spring a quick counterattacking opportunity. They had a PPDA of 9.6 in the Turkish Super Lig last year, but their pressing didn’t lead to great defensive numbers. They’ve only played seven matches domestically this year and are allowing around 1 expected goal per 90 minutes. They love to exploit the space in behind the defense, using a lot of vertical passes to connect with forwards making runs off the last line of defense.

As you saw in their opening match against Copenhagen, their quick transitional attack and high pressing style of play can lead to a very end to end style match. Copenhagen forced 16 high turnovers against Galatasaray and Manchester United have forced the most high turnovers in the Premier League this season.

Man United vs Galatasaray

Pick & Prediction

This has all the makings of a completely chaotic back and forth type match considering both teams are at their best playing in a high intensity, high tempo, and transitional type match.

The introduction of Mount and Amarabat to the squad is going to be huge for United because of Mount's ability on the ball and ability to get forward, while Amarabat provides much more cover. The problem is because of all of the injuries, he's being forced to play left back, so the pressure is going to be on Casemiro again to be perfect defending in those transitional moments.

Galatasaray have the talent to really exploit this Manchester United backline that is missing three of their usual four starters, so my guess is you are going to see a very aggressive approach from them trying to win the ball high to create counterattacking opportunities.

I have 3.9 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3 (-111 via bet365

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