Mexico vs. Honduras Gold Cup Odds, Picks, Predictions: El Tri Favored in Quarterfinal (July 24)

Mexico vs. Honduras Gold Cup Odds, Picks, Predictions: El Tri Favored in Quarterfinal (July 24) article feature image
  • Mexico is a big favorite over Honduras in Saturday's Gold Cup quarterfinals.
  • El Tri picked up seven points in group play and didn't allow a goal, but its offense was lacking.
  • See how we're betting Mexico against a banged up Honduras squad below.

Mexico vs. Honduras Odds

Mexico Odds-265
Honduras Odds+700
Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 p.m. ET
How To WatchFS1 | fuboTV
Odds updated Friday night via DraftKings.

The Mexico national team enters Saturday as the heaviest quarterfinal favorite in the CONCACAF Gold Cup for their Saturday night clash against Honduras in Arizona.

El Tri put on a solid but unconvincing performance in Group A, finishing atop the group with seven points and failing to concede a goal, but also playing all three of its opponents to closer-than-expected matches.

Honduras had to settle for second in Group D after a 2-0 loss to Qatar on the final day of group play.

Los Catrachos missed the quarterfinals in the 2019 tournament. In 2017, they suffered a 1-0 quarterfinal defeat to Mexico.

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Mexico Creating More Questions Than Answers

Mexico might have come into the Gold Cup hoping to find answers in its attacking positions. Instead, it has more questions after scoring only four goals in three matches.

Part of the issue is player availability. Tata Martino chose to let Raul Jimenez begin his preseason with Wolverhampton after missing the final two-thirds of last campaign with a facial injury. Then winger Chucky Lozano suffered his own tournament-ending injury in an opening 0-0 draw against Trinidad and Tobago.

Martino again left Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez off his squad at the start of the tournament. And if he wanted to add him now after CONCACAF announced it would allow roster changes for the knockout phase, he couldn't — Chicharito has missed the last couple weeks for LA with a calf issue.

That has opened the door for Rogelio Funes Mori, who struck for a brace in a 3-0 win for Guatemala. But in Mexico's other two games, the margins were too thin for a team that has won this tournament eight out of 15 times.

El Tri settled for a 0-0 draw in the opener despite outshooting the Soca Warriors 30-4 and holding 83% of the possession. They held on for a 1-0 win against an El Salvador team that surprised most by nearly matching the Mexicans for possession and chances.

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Honduras Hit By Injury Bug

Honduras began the tournament as one of the better hopes to disrupt the status quo at this event, dominated by Mexico and the United States since its inception in 1991.

Things began well enough with an easy 4-0 win over Grenada. Then the injury bug swept through the squad.

Winger Alberth Elis exited at halftime of a 3-2 win over Panama with what was eventually determined to be a broken toe, ruling him out of the remainder of the tournament.

Rommel Quioto scored a brace in Elis' absence. But he departed 26 minutes into the loss to Qatar with an unspecified leg injury. And captain Maynor Figueroa also had to leave shortly before halftime.

With only four days between matches, it seems unlikely either Quioto nor Figueroa would be able to contribute, leaving Honduras without a forward who plays outside the nation's relatively modest domestic league and its most experienced and well-traveled defender.

So far, it looks like Honduras will need to score to move on. With four goals conceded, they have the worst defensive record of any of the quarterfinalists.

Mexico vs. Honduras Pick

It might be tempting to look at these teams' quarterfinal meeting in 2017 to gauge how this one may play out.

But there are three crucial differences:

  1. Mexico also played in the Confederations Cup in 2017 and therefore brought a considerably weaker squad to the Gold Cup than they are fielding in 2021.
  2. Elis, Quioto and Figueroa were all healthy, and in the now 38-year-old Figueroa's case much closer to his athletic prime.
  3. Honduras entered that game in much better form defensively, conceding only once in three group stage games.

Mexico may be struggling to finish chances, but they're certainly not struggling to create them. They'll have two extra days rest relative to Honduras and the luxury of facing a banged-up squad.

Betting Mexico's total goals over 1.5, or Mexico to win to nil are two potential avenues to find value.

I'm feeling a little more adventurous and playing the Asian handicap at Mexico -1.5 goals at +140 odds and an implied 41.7% probability. It's not so much a vote of confidence or El Tri as reckoning with the reality that Honduras just doesn't have the horses right now.

Pick: Mexico -1.5 goals (+140)

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