MLS Saturday: Betting Value on Four Sides

Aug 18, 2018 11:16 AM EDT

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto FC’s Sebastian Giovinco

  • MLS features eight matches Saturday night, including Seattle Sounders-LA Galaxy at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
  • The betting market has already seen significant line movement on home favorites such as Seattle, Houston and Sporting Kansas City.
  • After analyzing all eight matchups on the board, I've picked out four value plays (+32.48 units on the season).

We’ve got another big night on tap in MLS, including Seattle-LA Galaxy and Sporting KC-Portland.

There are five big home favorites on the board, but the other three matches are essential toss-ups, and there’s plenty of betting value all around Saturday.

In midweek action, we saw more stellar play from Wayne Rooney to lead D.C. United to another win, 4-1, over the Portland Timbers. LAFC also took care of Real Salt Lake, making it a profitable night for sharp bettors.

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After analyzing each of Saturday’s matches, I’ve picked out four value plays, all at plus-money odds.

Season Record: 45-45-3, +32.49 units, 37% ROI

LA Galaxy at Seattle Sounders

Moneyline odds: Seattle -170, LA Galaxy +460, Draw +357
Total: 3 (o-103)
Time: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Galaxy will be shorthanded when they travel to Seattle for an early Saturday start against the Sounders. Among the missing are Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Romain Alessandrini, Gio dos Santos, Jonathan dos Santos and Michaël Ciani.

Seattle is arguably the hottest team in MLS, having reeled off five straight wins as they battle back into the Western Conference playoff picture. LA has been close to getting results but conceded late goals in three consecutive matches (one loss, two draws).

The Sounders have movedfrom -135 to -170 since opening, largely in part to the missing Galaxy starters. Seattle is the only side to bet here, but most of the moneyline value is gone at this point. Instead, I’m counting on a quick start from Seattle to put LA away early, so the first-half moneyline at +116 is a better option.



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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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