Wednesday MLS Betting Odds & Picks: Montreal vs. Toronto FC (Sept. 9)


Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto FC midfielder Pablo Piatti.

  • Toronto FC is looking to snap a two-game skid and further distance itself from Montreal in the chase for a Canadian Championship berth.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the latest chapter of the heated 401 Derby and thinks this will be another tight contest.
  • Check out his full betting preview below for updated odds, picks, and comprehensive analysis.

Montreal vs. Toronto FC Odds

Montreal Odds +325 [BET NOW]
Toronto FC Odds -134 [BET NOW]
Draw +290 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+110) [BET NOW]
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV TSN 4/5

Odds updated as of Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Just a few weeks ago, Toronto FC was on cruise control during the Major League Soccer restart. Most importantly, a berth in the Canadian Championship seemed to be a foregone conclusion.

Boy, how things have changed.

The Reds now cling to a small lead in the standings after two consecutive defeats and must get a positive result Wednesday when they travel to Montreal to face the Impact in MLS midweek action.

Only a handful of games are on the slate, but this is far and away the marquee event of the evening, pitting bitter foes against each other in the latest chapter of the Canadian Classique rivalry.

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Toronto FC, which suffered a 3-2 loss against Vancouver on Saturday at BC Place, is hoping to garner some revenge against Montreal at Stade Saputo. The Reds saw their 18-match unbeaten streak halted via the Impact’s 1-0 win on September 1 at BMO Field.

Coincidentally, that was Montreal’s most recent contest, so it has to have some confidence getting another shot at Toronto on its home pitch.

Looking at the data and statistics, Toronto FC boasts a ridiculous 14.1 expected goals and paltry 3.9 expected goals against numbers for a whopping +10.2 xGDiff number, along with a +1.46 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

On the other side, Montreal trails Toronto FC in all categories (4.5 xGF/8.3 xGA for -3.8 xGDiff and -0.76 xGDiff/90) and will be up against it in this match.

With that in mind, I am backing the total to stay under the number. The line is currently at 2.5 goals and +115, so I am going to buy that half-goal and take it to three instead.

Five of the last six matches have finished with three goals or less, and I see that trend continuing in this ultra-important contest.

If you are looking for a good prop wager, I would take a shot on Alejandro Pozuelo to score any time. The crafty midfielder recorded a goal the last time Toronto FC played at Montreal and has been a consistent threat around the penalty area during his time with the reigning Eastern Conference champions.

The Bets: Total under 3 goals (-141); Alejandro Pozuelo To Score — Toronto (+160).

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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