MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets From Matches Featuring LA Galaxy & New England Revolution (April 30)

It's hard to believe, but it's already the ninth week of the Major League Soccer season, with another 11 games on the slate via Saturday’s busy card.

Two Western Conference title contenders clash in a matinee when the Los Angeles Galaxy visits Real Salt Lake.

Later, the New England Revolution try to finally secure a win over an Inter Miami side that has surprisingly won the last two meetings.

And Sporting Kansas City tries to get back on the right track when they it hosts an FC Dallas side that has been tough to solve.

That said, here are our best bets for the latest schedule.

Real Salt Lake vs. LA Galaxy Odds

The LA Galaxy are for real, but they shouldn’t be nearly the same odds as Real Salt Lake when they visit one of the league's toughest road environments.

Manager Pablo Mastroeni’s squad has earned seven points from nine games at home this season, plus it has won six of nine league contests at Rio Tinto Stadium since he took the helm.

The club has generated a +2.5 xG goal difference despite an unusually tough early home schedule that included Seattle, Nashville and Toronto FC so far. That mark would be a fraction higher had it not spent 57 minutes against defending a one-goal lead in a 2-1 win against Nashville.

The Claret-and-Cobalt are also getting healthier, with the return of defenders Justen Glad and Aaron Herrera. And it xG totals overall are skewed by the outlier of one awful effort in a 6-0 loss at New York City FC two weeks ago.

The Galaxy have an impressive +2.4 xG difference away from home. However, they built more than half of that in their away opener against an FC Charlotte team playing its second-ever home match. And their away strength of schedule overall has been a bit lighter.

A draw is not unlikely, but the combination of the above variables is skewing the line away from Salt Lake.

So, I like the host on a Draw No Bet wager at -120 odds. That’s backing an implied 54.5% probability that games that don’t end even go Salt Lake’s way.

Quillen's Pick: Real Salt Lake — Draw No Bet(-120)

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

New England vs. Inter Miami

Manager Phil Neville’s Inter Miami side was unafraid to park the bus away from home in 2021, with the total going under 2.5 goals in 13 of 17 away games in the league. 

The side has conceded eight goals in three away contests so far, and the total has cleared 2.5 goals in two of those games. Yet, those are both deceptive stats. Its 3-1 defeat at Cincinnati included a penalty for each side.

Overall, Inter Miami has been much better on both ends of the field since Leonardo Campana has supplanted Gonzalo Higuain at center forward. And the combined expected goals in its away games is a much more pedestrian 2.5 per match.

The Revolutions can play some wild contests, but they usually need willing partners. There was only one goal scored combined in two home matches against the defensively minded New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas, which came from a penalty. The combined xG of their home games is 2.4 per outing.

New England had similarly games last season at home against the Red Bulls, Columbus and Nashville, among others.

The line is moving toward the over, with Inter Miami a little better defensively right now than its reputation and New England being a little worse on attack.

A more even split on the odds each side of 2.5 goals would be tighter. At +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability, the under is a bargain.

Quillen's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+130)

Sporting KC vs. FC Dallas Odds

Under manager Nico Estevez, FC Dallas has a clear modus operandi on the road: keep it tight early and try to steal it late. 

It hasn’t entirely worked out, but Dallas has at least taken points from tough trips to Chicago, plus a journey further east to play the New York Red Bulls.

Meanwhile, Sporting Kansas City has been without striker Alan Pulido and midfielder Gadi Kinda the entire season. Already knowing Pulido was lost for the year to knee surgery, Sporting KC revealed Friday that Kinda also won't return until next campaign.

That has made it easier to key on last year's leading scorers, Johnny Russell and Daniel Salloi. And as a result, Sporting KC has yet to score multiple goals this season.

This match has slow start written all over it. Between Kansas City home matches and Dallas away games, the first halves have finished scoreless on five of seven occasions.

More of the same is likely. And at +165 odds and an implied 37.7% probability, there’s a lot of value betting on the score still being 0-0 after 45 minutes.

Quillen's Pick: 1H Total — Under 0.5 Goals (+165)