MLS Betting: How to Bet Wednesday’s New York Derby

MLS Betting: How to Bet Wednesday’s New York Derby article feature image

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Red Bulls defender Kevin Politz (3) argues with New York Red Bulls midfielder Daniel Royer (77) in front of forward Bradley Wright-Phillips (99) and midfielder Tyler Adams (4)

  • NYC FC are +124 favorites in the New York Derby against New York Red Bulls (+224). The draw is priced at +265.
  • Both clubs are among the best in MLS, but public bettors are picking a side in the New York Derby.

Wednesday night features a can’t-miss New York Derby between New York City FC and the New York Red Bulls.

Both clubs are top-three in MLS in wins, goals per game and expected goals per game and are battling for the Supporters’ Shield, which is given to the MLS team that amasses the most points.

Last weekend around the league, home teams won eight of 11 matches, with Real Salt Lake earning the only road victory.

Value plays went just 2-4 for -1.39 units, but it was just a minor blip on the season so far. With matches being played from Wednesday through Sunday, there are plenty of opportunities coming up.

After analyzing the New York Derby and digging through the betting market, I’ve picked out a value play to bet.

Season Record: 47-49-3, +31.10 units, 32% ROI

New York Red Bulls at New York City FC

Moneyline odds: NYC FC +124, NY Red Bulls +224, Draw +265
Total: 3 (o-123)
Time: 7 p.m. ET on FS1

The third New York Derby of the season is upon us and NYC FC and New York Red Bulls have both secured home wins in the series so far.

The Red Bulls won the first meeting at home, 4-0, while NYC FC picked up a late win at Yankee Stadium six weeks ago.

In each team’s most recent outing, NYC FC lost 2-0 at Philadelphia while NYRB earned up a respectable road point at Vancouver with a 2-2 tie.

NYC FC head coach Dome Torrent hasn’t been happy with his team’s performance in the second half of recent games. Conceding chances has been an issue, with his side allowing multiple goals in four straight matches.

To make matters worse, they’ll be without Ronald Matarrita on the outside after picking up a red card last match, and will also be missing a number of players due to injury, including central defender Alex Callens and midfielder Jesus Medina.

Without Medina on the field this season, NYC FC average nearly one fewer goal per game.

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Despite the negatives against NYC FC, public bettors don’t seem concerned. At plus-money odds, the home side has received more than 60% of bets, yet the line has moved against them from +117 to +124.

Sportsbooks clearly aren’t concerned about tickets coming in on NYC FC at this point, making the hosts great fade material.

The Red Bulls know how to win on the road and have picked up 20 points in 12 away matches. Traveling back from Vancouver isn’t the easiest situation, but at least they’re back in New York.

This is a great contrarian spot to bet on a road team that could win outright in a rivalry game.

Bradley Wright-Phillips should be a huge factor offensively and has tormented NYC FC lately, and I expect that to continue tonight. Despite a little bit of juice on the goal line, I love the value on the Red Bulls to get a result.

The Bet: New York Red Bulls +0.5 (-135)

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