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MLS Betting: 2 Buy-Low Spots Provide Value on Sunday

Credit:

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta United goalie Brad Guzan

  • There are two buy-low opportunities for MLS bettors on Sunday as the Columbus Crew take on Atlanta United (4 p.m. ET) and the New England Revolution play D.C. United (7:30 p.m. ET).
  • The betting market has seen lopsided action in both games, which has created contrarian value.

The flurry of late goals in MLS continued on Saturday night with New York Red Bulls, Montreal Impact, and Real Salt Lake all scoring 90th minute goals to pick up extra points. Hopefully the excitement continues on Sunday and there are three pivotal games to the playoff  standings:

  • Columbus at Atlanta (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
  • New England at DC United (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
  • Colorado at LAFC (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Saturday’s MLS value plays went 2-2 for +0.61 units and there are more great betting opportunities for Sunday’s card. After analyzing each matchup, I’ve picked out two value plays.

Season Record: 47-47-3, +33.10 units, 35% ROI


Columbus Crew at Atlanta United

Moneyline odds: Atlanta -158, Columbus +453, Draw +324
Total: 3 (o-121)
Time: 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+

At first glance it doesn’t appear that there’s been much line movement in this match — Atlanta United opened -158 at Pinnacle sportsbook and those are the exact odds they’re at now. However, we’ve actually seen quite a bit of fluctuation over the past few days.

Atlanta United initially came down to -149 on multiple occasions before shooting up to the -190 range. Once that happened, there was plenty of buyback on Columbus and the draw.

Public bettors have been hammering the home side all week with more than 70% of the tickets. That should come as no surprise since Atlanta United are tied for the league-high in points (48) and rank second in the league in wins (14). They’re also well-rested with a couple weeks off, last playing on Aug. 4.

I’m going contrarian in this one, though, and see a lot of value in taking the Crew +1 (-125). They’ve won three straight games and could actually be catching Atlanta United at a time where they’ll be a little bit rusty.

Despite just a +2 goal differential on the season, Columbus’ xGD (expected goal differential) ranks fourth overall in the league at +10.2.

The Bet: Columbus +1 (-125)


New England Revolution at D.C. United

Moneyline odds: D.C. United -113, New England +320, Draw +284
Total: 3 (-140)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1

D.C. United are the most popular MLS bet of the day with 74% of bets to win at home. They’ve been on a roll lately, especially at their brand new Audi Field, led by forward Wayne Rooney.

Odds on D.C. rose quickly after lines opened, but they’ve come crashing down hard since.  Similar to the Atlanta-Columbus match, we’ve seen some sharper buyback come in on the road team.

While it’s irrelevant to any betting purposes, FS1’s broadcast will mark the first all-female announcing team for a men’s professional game in the U.S., which includes play-by-play announcer Lisa Byington, analyst Danielle Slaton and reporter Katie Witham.

The Revolution haven’t played poorly of late, but they just can’t seem to get a result. Blatant defensive lapses have cost them dearly despite playing very well on the offensive end, and now they’re desperate to get points.

Betting on New England means you’re buying very low on a struggling squad, but the Revs have played far better than results show. This is a pivotal game for both clubs, but the value is on New England to win/draw.

The Bet: New England +0.5 (+103)


Value Plays

  • Columbus +1 (-125) at Atlanta United
  • New England +0.5 (+103) at D.C. United
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