NYCFC vs. Atlanta United Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: City Overvalued at ‘Home’ (June 23)

NYCFC vs. Atlanta United Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: City Overvalued at ‘Home’ (June 23) article feature image
Credit:

Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Gabriel Heinze.

  • Atlanta United look to get back on the winning path on Wednesday in New Jersey against NYCFC.
  • United have drawn four of their last five games and will look to get all three points here in Harrison -- a scheduling conflict prevented NYCFC from playing at its normal home, Yankee Stadium.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the matchup and provides his best bet below.

NYCFC vs. Atlanta Odds

NYCFC Odds -175
Atlanta Odds +430
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +123)
Day | Time Wednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Tuesday evening via DraftKings.

Both New York City FC and Atlanta United look to shake their tendency of conceding late goals when they meet on Wednesday evening at Red Bull Arena.

New York has conceded four goals after the 75th minute in the last three matches, two each in home losses to Columbus and New England.

Atlanta has given back late two-goal leads to settle for back-to-back home draws against Nashville and Philadelphia.

Both teams are in a four-way tie on 11 points for seventh place in the Eastern Conference.

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NYCFC Looking To Make Up for Injured Attack

A long-term ACL injury to Brazilian striker Heber was expected to make attacking more challenging for the Cityzens.

That hasn’t materialized despite a year when goals overall are down in MLS.

Paraguayan attacker Jesus Medina has scored five times to lead NYCFC, and with his next goal he’ll tie his MLS high.

Valentin Castellanos has added four goals as manager Ronny Deila’s top option to fill the No. 9 role Heber has vacated. And 15 NYCFC’s 15 goals scored total  are the most in the Eastern Conference.

But goalkeeper Sean Johnson and his defense have only kept one clean sheet against an opponent with 11 men. Maybe more concerning, they’ve allowed opponents higher quality chances in recent games.

Those opponents registered only 3.5 expected goals in NYCFC’s first six matches and then 4.0 over the last two, according to StatsBomb.

Perhaps some of that has owed to the absence of Alexander Callens, the center back who remains at Copa America with the Peru national team.

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Atlanta Looks To Break Through With Win

Manager Gabriel Heinze will serve a yellow card-accumulation suspension and won’t be on the touchline yesterday. The way matches have ended recently, he might be thankful.

While the Five Stripes are unbeaten in five, four of those are draws, and the last two clearly felt more like two points lost than one gained.

Nashville’s Randall Leal took advantage of some defensive sloppiness to score twice after the 79th minute and salvage a 2-2 draw in Week 7.

Philadelphia completed a similar fightback Sunday, leveling the match on a Jakob Glesnes’ sensational strike from distance that no defense or goalkeeper could be faulted for.

On the plus side, Atlanta have scored twice in consecutive matches for the first time this season despite still searching for their offensive identity.

Six different players have already scored  and four more have provided at least one assist. That has bought some time for club leading scorer Josef Martinez — who has two goals — to find his vintage form following more than a year away recovering from an ACL tear.

He won’t continue that task on Wednesday — he’s playing for Venezuela at Copa America.


Betting Analysis & Pick

Atlanta may still be without a signature away win. But there’s no reason an NYCFC squad tied with them on points should be getting this much respect from the oddsmakers.

Of course, the line bakes in home field advantage. But such an advantage is lessened in matches City has been forced to move across the Hudson River to Red Bull Arena due to scheduling issues at Yankee Stadium.

In fact, NYCFC has lost its last two “home” games in Harrison, N.J. And there’s reason to expect their performances wouldn’t be as strong there: The home crowds are much smaller, and the pitch is a normal size. At Yankee Stadium, tight pitch dimensions have always given City a unique edge.

There’s also reason to suspect the best is yet to come from Atlanta’s offense, namely the return of Ezequiel Barco. He made his first 90-minute performance since opening weekend on Sunday after returning from a hamstring injury.

Atlanta is traveling and has a day less rest, this is certainly a challenge. But a double-chance wager at +138 odds and a 42% implied probability of earning at least a point is still a bargain when these teams are in similar form.

Pick: Atlanta or draw, double chance (+138)

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