Most Picked Team to Win the English Premier League by State

Most Picked Team to Win the English Premier League by State article feature image

As the English Premier League approaches its conclusion, we delved into the vast pool of data available on the Action App to determine which teams have been favored by the bettors across all US states.

Our analysis encompassed data from the beginning of the 2022/23 season, which commenced on August 6th, through March 1st.

Favorite Picks to Win the League

Here’s what we found out:

  • Despite currently sitting in second place, Manchester City has been the most picked team to win across all states up until this date. 74% of all states have backed the Citizens to win. Before the season, Manchester City was the favorite, coming in at a -175 odds (at FanDuel). 
  • The second favorite at FanDuel ahead of the season, Liverpool (+220), isn’t the top pick in any state throughout this research. Probably wise considering how everything has turned out for the Reds so far this season. 
  • Arsenal, currently first in the table, have been the top pick in 18% of all US states. The Northwest has particularly been on the Arsenal train this season, despite them only being valued as the 6th most likely team to win the league at FanDuel ahead of the season. The Gunners opened the year at +4500 to win the league. Looking at their performances throughout the season, it might come as a surprise that more people haven’t pivoted into picking them for the prestigious trophy. 
  • Tottenham was the third favorite ahead of the 2022/23 season kick-off, being offered at +1600 at FanDuel to win the Premier League, and four states had the Lilywhites as their top pick to win. 

It’s interesting to see no state, despite huge fan-following and American owners, has  Manchester United, Liverpool or Chelsea as their top pick to win. Ahead of the season, Manchester United was ranked as the fifth favorite at FanDuel (+2900), Chelsea as fourth (+1400) and Liverpool as second (+220). 

We asked Action Network’s soccer expert, former USMNT forward Eric Wynalda, what he thinks about bettors siding with Manchester City and Arsenal: 

I don’t find this too astonishing. The world has been waiting for this young Arsenal (team) to fold … It just hasn’t happened. Yet. 

The idea of a late comeback (from Manchester City) is very enticing for the betting public because it’s still very possible that they could steal it from Arsenal right at the death.

The former player and manager weren’t too surprised that none of the bettors sided with either Manchester United or Liverpool:

Manchester United was in such disarray after last year's campaign. It’s very understandable that the fans were not going to expect such a quick turnaround.

Liverpool postured to be a contender but they too have had a rollercoaster season.

Bets For Top Goal Scorer

Alongside the state's top picks, we analyzed which player was the preferred choice of the bettors in the US to become the league's top scorer. The top 10 picks were as follows: 

It's no wonder that Erling Braut Haaland has been the most picked player to become the top scorer, given the scorching start to his Manchester City career and the enormous expectations that came with his transfer. It’s interesting to see that Mohamed Salah has only been the fifth most-picked player, considering how well he has done in recent years, but it fits well with the lackluster support Liverpool has gotten from US bettors. 

American fans have Chelsea star, Christian Pulisic, as the ninth most-picked player to become the top scorer, despite never scoring more than nine goals in a season for the Blues. 

Despite starting the season as the backup striker for Arsenal, Eddie Nketiah is the most picked Arsenal player to become the top scorer. This is most likely due to the fact that Gabriel Jesus suffered an injury during a Brazil – Cameroon match in the World Cup in December that would keep him sidelined for a substantial amount of time.  

Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list is Leeds striker/winger, Rodrigo Moreno, who sits in 10th place. The Spaniard was off to a good start, scoring four goals in the three first games, probably enticing bettors to look his way. 

Looking at all bets placed on the winner, it seems obvious that bettors haven’t resorted to following their hearts, but rather used wits and reason, staying away from the likes of Manchester United and Liverpool who haven’t looked up to par this year. It’s looking a bit different when examining the bets placed on the top scorer, where we see a few surprises, such as Eddie Nketiah, Christian Pulisic and Rodrigo Moreno among the top-10 picks.

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