Napoli vs. Ajax Betting Preview & Prediction: Is There Betting Value on Napoli at Home?
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Giacomo Raspadori.
- Napoli welcomes Ajax to Naples as it seeks a fourth straight win in the Champions League group stage.
- Napoli currently leads the Champions League in expected goals and xG differential while Ajax is sitting on three points in Group A and is three points behind Liverpool for the second spot in the group.
- Nicholas Hennion previews the match and offers up his best bet below.
Napoli vs. Ajax Odds
| Napoli Odds | -185 |
| Ajax Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+105 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 11:45 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Mere days after a road blowout, Napoli welcomes Ajax to Naples as it seeks a fourth straight win in the Champions League group stage.
Last Tuesday, the Serie A leaders boat-raced Ajax, 6-1, in Amsterdam in a match that saw the visitors take a 3-1 lead into halftime. That sealed a third straight win in the group stage for Napoli, which currently leads the Champions League in expected goals and xG differential.
On the flip-side, Ajax is sitting on three points in Group A and is three points behind Liverpool for the second spot in the group.
Napoli
Even if you remove all the halves in which luck went Napoli's way, this is still a team that has dominated this group.
In just two halves against Liverpool and the respective first halves against Rangers and Ajax, Napoli has a +2.46 expected goal differential and is generating 1.79 expected goals per 90 minutes in those halves, per fotmob.com.
Additionally, Napoli has played extremely well at home this season. In five combined Serie A and Champions League home matches, Napoli has created 2.61 expected goals on target per 90 minutes and won four of five by at least one expected goal.
Defensively, Napoli has only surrendered 3.4 expected goals and 4.77 xGOT in those five home fixtures. It has also yet to surrender more than one goal in that sample.
Ajax
The perennial Eredivisie winners started strong in the group stage, but have expectedly seen a turn in form against better opposition.
In its past two UCL group fixtures, Ajax has conceded eight goals against six expected, an 8.32 xGOT and eight big scoring chances.
Offensively, the results haven't been much better as Ajax generated only 1.86 expected goals on target against Napoli and Liverpool.
This is also an Ajax outfit that has historically struggled to defend on the road in this competition. Across its past six road UCL group fixtures against sides from the top-five UEFA coefficient nations, Ajax has conceded 2.32 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Some lines this week provided too much of a reaction to last week's match. Here's an example of a match that didn't provide enough of a reaction.
I recognize there was a red card last week in Amsterdam, but Napoli generated 5.43 expected goals on target in the first 70 minutes of that match before the red card happened. Oh, and it came away from home, where it has generally proven an inferior side compared to its home outputs.
I don't see how Ajax, without a key playmaker in Dusan Tadic (suspension), generates enough offense to keep up with Napoli. Add in how poor Ajax's defense has played in the Champions League away from home and I'm even more convinced Napoli is the right side Wednesday.
Lay a goal with the hosts at anything better than -140.
The Pick: Napoli Goal-Line (-1, -125)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
