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Netherlands vs. USWNT Soccer Odds, Picks, Prediction: Women’s Olympic Soccer Betting Preview (July 30)

Netherlands vs. USWNT Soccer Odds, Picks, Prediction: Women’s Olympic Soccer Betting Preview (July 30) article feature image

Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: United States star Alex Morgan.

  • The United States squares off against the Netherlands in Friday's Olympic women's soccer match.
  • The Americans, who struggled to a 1-1-1 mark in group play, are slight favorites over a Dutch side that scored 21 goals in their first three contests.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the matchup below and details why he's backing the USWNT to triumph.

Netherlands vs. United States Odds

Netherlands Odds +175
United States Odds +130
Draw +250
Over/Under 3.5 (+115 / -160)
Day | Time Friday | 7 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds updated Thursday afternoon via BetMGM.

We have reached the “business” part of the Olympics, with things getting down to the nitty-gritty in the women’s soccer tournament.

Finding itself in an unusual position at these Summer Games is the United States, which entered the competition as the prohibitive favorite to claim gold in Tokyo. Well, a disappointing 1-1-1 (W-L-D) record in group play has many American fans and pundits alike questioning whether or not this squad can accomplish the task at hand.

Suffice it to say, we’ll find out pretty quickly if the USWNT is ready to make a serious run toward the top of the podium when it takes on the Netherlands in Friday’s quarterfinal matchup. Game time is set for 7 a.m. ET, which is more palatable for east coast viewers than other matches have been thus far.

Let’s take a look at these countries and see what could be on deck.

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Electric Offense, Shoddy Defense Define The Netherlands

Yes, that headline you just read perfectly encapsulates the Dutch. They featured the most explosive offense in the group stage, racking up an unreal 21 goals en route to a 2-0-1 record.

The Netherlands’ attack has been nothing short of fantastic up to this point. And if there was a Golden Boot competition, striker Vivianne Medina would have already secured top honors. The Dutch star has recorded eight goals and an assist through three matches, which is two more goals than the USWNT has scored the entire competition.

However, it hasn’t been all pretty tulips and aesthetically pleasing windmills for the Netherlands. Its defense has been anything but great. Actually, labeling its effort in that third of the pitch as “leaky” would be a compliment.

Now, I should have prefaced that opinion with the fact I take no issue with playing global star Marta and Brazil to a 3-3 stalemate. That’s fine. Yet, I do have major problems with the Netherlands conceding two goals to China and an eye-popping three goals against lowly Zambia.

Sure, that match against China was an 8-2 rout and the win against Zambia was a 10-3 blowout, but that sketchy defense has to be a concern for the Dutch considering the fact they suffered a 2-0 loss to the Americans the last time they met on home soil.

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United States Delivers Inconsistent Performances

Assuming you’ve been getting up in the middle of the night or crack of dawn — depending on where you live — to watch the Americans play at some ungodly hours, it has been pretty obvious to even the novice viewer the kind of performances we’ve seen thus far.

If you valued sleep more than 90 minutes (plus stoppage time) instead, let me break things down succinctly in as few words as possible. Simply put, the USWNT has struggled and looked like a shell of itself in two of its three games leading up to this tussle with the Netherlands.

The Americans, who thumped New Zealand in a 6-1 rout, bookended that result with a resounding 3-0 loss to Sweden in a match they were never in and a perplexing scoreless draw against Australia last time out. In the latter affair, the USWNT almost looked as if it was managing the match to avoid defeat since it knew there was really no chance at finishing ahead of Sweden.

Obviously, that isn’t a style we’re used to seeing the USWNT play. The Americans, led by world-class attackers Alex Morgan and Christen Press, usually swarm their foes from front to back. They’re absolutely relentless, never taking their feet off the proverbial gas until the final whistle.

Well, that didn’t happen against Sweden and was surprisingly the case in the draw with the Matildas. In fact, Australia held a 10-8 edge in total shots and wound up with a 5-3 edge on corner kicks.

Line Movement Showing Interest in Underdog Dutch

When I first peaked at the odds Wednesday evening at BetMGM, the USWNT was sitting as a slight favorite on the three-way line at +120 odds. The Netherlands found itself at +190, with the draw locked in at +250 odds.

Since then, money has come in on the Dutch and tightened these numbers. As of Thursday afternoon, the Americans had floated up to +130 and seen their counterparts come down to +175 odds. The draw has held firm at +250, which points toward the public believing the Netherlands has a legitimate shot at dethroning the world’s top-ranked team.

More movement has occurred on the To Advance wager, with the USWNT going from -145 to -135 odds. Obviously, the Dutch have been taking the action there as well, shifting from +105 to -105 on the line. Yes, the Americans are still favored, but if you asked me prior to the start of the competition if we’d ever see the USWNT at these number I would have laughed.

Betting Analysis & Pick

If I had my own, personal soccer dictionary, the word “frustrating” would include a photo of the current USWNT standing on an Olympic pitch.

Bottom line, this team is virtually impossible to figure out at the moment after such mediocre, uncharacteristic performances in the group stage. Now, the Americans catch a Dutch outfit beaming with confidence, even though two of its victories came against global minnows.

As I mentioned, the action ahead of this match is coming in on Netherlands, and I can’t blame bettors for taking a stance against the USWNT. However, I’m not one of those jumping ship on this squad. They’re too deep, too talented to bow out in the quarterfinal round against a Netherlands side it dominated the last time they faced each other.

For those reasons, I’m keeping my seat on the USWNT train and backing it to triumph at +130 odds via BetMGM as my top selection. That is simply way too much value on the Americans to pass up in my opinion.

I will also play the USWNT to advance at -135 odds, which provides me some protection if this game somehow reaches extra time and penalties.

Picks: USWNT ML (+130) | USWNT To Advance (-135)

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