New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Value on Draw, Few Goals Ahead of Showdown (July 3)

New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Value on Draw, Few Goals Ahead of Showdown (July 3) article feature image

Christopher Morris – Corbis/Getty Images. Pictured: New England Revolution goalkeeper Djordje Petrović.

New England vs. Cincinnati Odds

New England Odds-185
Cincinnati Odds+425
Over/Under3.5 (+125 / -185)
Day | TimeSunday | 7:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The New England Revolution will try to complete a three-game sweep of FC Cincinnati across all competitions when they meet Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

The Revolution defeated a largely second-choice Cincinnati squad in a 5-1 home rout in the U.S. Open Cup a while back, then won a much more competitive, 3-2 road game in league play.

Both games featured two goals from Adam Buksa, who has since departed for Ligue 1 outfit RC Lens.

New England settled for a scoreless away at Vancouver last weekend. On the other side, Cincinnati tied New York City FC in a wild, 4-4 midweek stalemate.

New England

Manager Bruce Arena's side reportedly is set to add Juventus striker Giacomo Vrioni to replace Buksa, but it's not exactly like it has struggled without him.

New England became just the sixth team in 18 matches to earn a point or more from a trip to Vancouver last weekend. The Revolution is on a nine-match MLS unbeaten run overall, and after some wilder encounters have conceded one goal or fewer in their last five games.

What New England doesn’t do is pull away from teams. Only five of its 18 MLS wins since the start of 2021 have been by multiple goals.

By The Numbers

  • 1.31 — Average xG created per 90 minutes by New England in home games this season.
  • 0.60 — Gustavo Bou's goals per 90 minutes since returning from injury. He has recorded three goals in 449 minutes.
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FC Cincinnati

For a second consecutive season, Cincinnati has posted better results away from home.

The numbers beneath those efforts suggest a regression should becoming in both places. The visitors have only won three times and taken 10 points from eight away contests despite the third-best home xGDiff in the Eastern Conference. They've taken 14 points from nine matches away despite the 4th-worst away xGDiff in their conference.

Cincinnati is are relatively healthy, but hort in the key position of holding midfield against reigning MLS MVP Carles Gil.

Junior Moreno is injured, while Obinna Nwobodo is serving a card-accumulation suspension after picking up another caution in the NYCFC draw. Brazilian striker Brenner scored a hat trick in that game for his second, third and fourth Cincinnati goals this season.

By The Numbers

  • 2.12 — Points earned per game by Cincinnati over their last eight outings.
  • 55 — Percentage of Cincinnati goals that standout Luciano Acosta has either scored or assisted this season.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Bottom line, the total is too high. Both teams have home-away splits that don't appear to be taken into account. The away team often dictates the possible scoring range, plus New England plays more proactively on the road than Cincinnati.

The total has stayed under 2.5 goals half the time between Cincinnati away matches and New England home games (18 matches total) this season. It has not cleared 3.5 goals on 14 of 18 occasions. Maybe xG totals suggest scoring in the visitor’s games should've been higher, but only slightly overall.

Secondly, with the Revolution between first-choice strikers, they're favored a bit too heavily against another team in good form. And since the line on the total should also be lower, that makes the draw a strong play. That bet has hit five of 18 times in the relevant home/away splits, including five of the last 12 tilts.

So, I'm backing the total staying under 3.5 goals at -185 odds and an implied 64.5% probability, plus the draw at +320 odds and an implied 23.8% probability. The former acts as a partial hedge for the latter. If either team prevails, it could be because of a third decisive goal.

The Picks: Draw — (+320) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-185)

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