Newcastle vs Burnley Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview
Alex Dodd/Getty. Pictured: Alexander Isak.
Newcastle United vs Burnley Odds
| Newcastle United Odds | -334 |
| Burnley Odds | +800 |
| Draw | +475 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
Newcastle look for all three points before they host PSG in the Champions League when they welcome Burnley to St. James Park on Saturday.
The Magpies got a season-defining win on Wednesday in the League Cup, delivering Manchester City their first loss of the season and ending their quadruple hopes early on. Newcastle have played the most difficult schedule to begin the Premier League season. Now they are starting to enter the easier part of the schedule, which is where they had so much success last season, beating up on the bottom half of the table.
For better or worse, Vincent Kompany is sticking with his tactical plan that they were playing in the Championship. It has not worked through five matches as they have just one point to show for it. They put in a good performance in their previous Premier League game against Manchester United, but Newcastle are a much different test, especially on the road.
Newcastle United
This is a lookahead spot for Newcastle and the market could not be higher on them at the moment after beating Sheffield United 8-0, but that is what this Newcastle team does to bad teams.
Dating back to the start of last season, against bottom half of the table sides they have a +1.22 xGD per 90 minutes. We also have to remember Newcastle have played the most difficult schedule so far this season. Sheffield United are the first team they’ve played that would be considered a bottom half of the table side.
Another big addition for Newcastle is Jolinton played in their League Cup match against Manchester City on Wednesday and you could make the argument that he is their best pressing midfielder and changes the way they press opponents with how physical and smart he is setting up Newcastle’s pressing traps.
Effective high pressing has allowed Newcastle to be top five in final third to box entry conversion rate and create the most big scoring chances so far in the Premier League. Yes, a lot of them came against Aston Villa and Sheffield United, but we have to remember this team is so good at destroying bottom half of the table sides like Burnley.
Newcastle also have a fantastic record at St. James Park, as they've only lost three matches in the Premier League and have a +1.32 xGD per 90 minutes.
Burnley
The last two matches Burnley hasn’t been as intense with their high pressing as Vincent Kompany is finally aware that they can’t play that style in the Premier League against teams that can successfully build out of the back.
With that being said, they aren’t sending the ball long and trying to play in transition. Even against Manchester United, who are not a good pressing team at the moment, Burnley committed 14 high turnovers in their own end of the pitch. What do you think is going to happen when they have to play one the most physical and intense pressing team in the Premier League?
It’s wonderful to try and build out of the back, but if it doesn’t result in the creation of a high quality chance, it’s meaningless. It's early, but Burnley have created the second-fewest expected goals, have taken the fourth-fewest shots and have created the third-fewest big scoring chances.
Since Burnley keep trying to build out of the back and since they keep committing all of these high turnovers, they've given up a lot of high quality chances. The Clarets have now conceded 7.7 xG to teams not named Nottingham Forest this season and have the second-worst final third to box entry conversion rate. That's not what you want to see when you are facing one of the best high pressing transition teams in the world.
Newcastle United vs Burnley
Pick & Prediction
This is a bad spot for Newcastle coming off a win in the league cup against Manchester City and having a match with PSG in the Champions League in the middle of the week. However, from a tactical perspective this is about as good as it gets for Eddie Howe's side.
Burnley's insistence on playing out from the back and trying up build up rather than playing the ball long plays right into what Newcastle try to accomplish in forcing those high turnovers to eventually create high quality chances in transitional opportunities.
Regardless of the bad tactical matchup for Burnley, their offensive tactics haven't led to high quality chances, so going on the road against one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League is a really bad situation.
So, I like the value on BTTS no at -104.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-104 via FanDuel)
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