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MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United Betting Preview

MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United Betting Preview article feature image
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Andrew Katsampes/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Union goalkeeper Andre Blake.

  • Philadelphia hosts D.C. United in Friday's Major League Soccer showdown.
  • The hosts are solid -140 moneyline favorites, but analyst Ian Quillen has found value on a Single Game Parlay as his top pick.
  • Check out below to see which betting angles he has paired together ahead of this match.

Philadelphia vs. D.C. United Odds

Philadelphia Odds -140
D.C. United Odds +350
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / -110)
Day | Time Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch ESPN | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Friday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Philadelphia aims for a second consecutive home win Friday when it faces D.C. United, which is coming off its best offensive performance of the year, in Major League Soccer action.

Philadelphia was fortunate to wind up with a scoreless draw in last Sunday’s road match at Columbus, thanks to a penalty save from goalkeeper Andre Blake. That continued the Union’s rare streak of not conceding more than two goals all season, which is one reason they’ve settled for so many draws.

On the other side, D.C. United broke out of an offensive funk in a 5-3 thumping away to Orlando City, paced by Taxi Fountas’ first MLS hat trick. That marked the club’s first away win since the second week of the season.

D.C. United won these teams’ last meeting via a 3-1 triumph in Washington, but Philadelphia has taken the last eight MLS matches between them played at Subaru Park.

Philadelphia Union

The Union enter this match sitting second in the crowded Eastern Conference table and could be well clear in first with a little more cutting edge.

Philadelphia has drawn eight of its last 11 games. The outfit took the lead in five of those matches and failed to increase it. Two more finished scoreless.

It’s not for lack of chances. The Union’s 16.8 xG created at home is the second-highest total in the conference behind New York City FC, but their 11 home goals scored are tied for 11th in the East.

By The Numbers

  • -5.8 — The difference between Philadelphia’s GF (11) and xGF (16.8) at home.
  • -3.0 — The difference between the Union’s GA (5) and xGA (8.0) at home.
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D.C. United

The visiting side desperately needed its victory in Central Florida on Monday, but even then there were troubling signs.

Interim manager Chad Ashton’s side have were barely able to stand prosperity, allowing a 3-0 advantage to turn into a tight contest, with Orlando twice storming back within a goal. Credit to D.C. United for continuing to attack, but on balance the match felt more like a match Orlando City’s defense lost rather than D.C. United’s attack won.

Overall, D.C. United has now conceded 22 goals in 10 games since Ashton took over for Hernan Losada, who was let go. The side allowed at least two goals in 11 of 16 games overall, and five of six contests in which goalkeeper Bill Hamid (hand) is unavailable. Hamid is out again for this meeting.

By The Numbers

  • +6.4 — The difference between D.C. United’s away GA and xGA this season.
  • 2,982 — Number of days since the club earned a win or draw in Philadelphia.

BJ Cunningham’s MLS Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a strange one on the surface, with advanced metrics that don’t mesh with what has transpired on the field. There’s a lot of unpredictability here.

However, here’s what feels reliable: Philadelphia has conceded exactly one goal at home to a team that isn’t currently holding a playoff spot. D.C. United, which is a team well beneath the playoff line, has kept only one clean sheet in seven away games.

Based on that track record, even if chance of a draw is stubbornly high given Philadelphia’s striking woes, the probability of a D.C. United victory feels pretty low. And it’s most likely a D.C. United win that would send the total higher.

The trends back that up this year. All four of Philadelphia’s home wins have featured fewer than four goals. The same is true of three of D.C. United’s four away defeats. Combined in Philadelphia’s games at home and D.C. United’s matches away, that’s a 43.8% hit rate on a Single Game Parlay wager that has +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability.

Given the traits of these teams, the actual probability might even be higher than that 44% mark. It’s not enormous value, but given other variables, it’s enough to play in a tricky spot.

The Pick: Single Game Parlay — Philadelphia ML & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+145)

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