Wednesday Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview: Back Brighton, Wolves to Score in EPL Clash

Wednesday Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview: Back Brighton, Wolves to Score in EPL Clash article feature image
Credit:

Dominic Lipinski/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Graham Potter of Brighton & Hove Albion.

  • Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Wolves in Wednesday's Premier League action.
  • Neither club has been able to get anything going on offense, but that hasn't stopped Anthony Dabbundo from backing the attacks in this south coast affair.
  • Check out below his two bets, including why he's expecting both sides to find the back of the net.

Brighton vs. Wolves Odds

Brighton Odds +140
Wolves Odds +225
Draw +215
Over/Under 2.5 (+145 / -175)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Two of the biggest struggling attacks in the Premier League meet on the English south coast Wednesday when Wolves take on host Brighton & Hove Albion.

The Seagulls had the weekend off following a COVID-19 outbreak within the squad of scheduled opponent Tottenham, while Wolverhampton suffered a 1-0 defeat at defending champion Manchester City.

Late goals have rescued points in Brighton’s last two league games. They trailed 1-0 to both West Ham United and Southampton away from home early in the game However, they scored a goal in stoppage time to steal a point and a 1-1 draw in both matches.

Wolves haven’t been scoring goals at all, as they’ve been shut out in five of their last six games. Their only goal came from Raúl Jiménez in a 1-0 win against West Ham on Nov. 6, and he’s suspended for this game after he was sent off this past Saturday against Manchester City.

Despite both attacks struggling to finish chances, both teams have some positive attacking regression coming and have too much talent to remain where they sit in the goals tables.

Brighton: [Editorial Language]

It seems genuinely impossible, but Brighton hasn’t won a league match since Sept. 19. Yet, the Seagulls sit 11th in the table with a game in hand on most of the league. They’re not winning games, but not really losing them either.

In their last 10 matches, Brighton has no wins, eight draws and two losses. They’ve only lost the xG battle in two of those draws, so (once again) it’s more poor finishing than anything else costing them points. The Seagulls aren’t dropping as many one-goal games in heartbreaking fashion this year, but have only scored 14 goals from 17.4 xG in attack.

The Seagulls have been statistically far better at home where they have 10.3 xG in seven home matches. That 1.47 xG/90 is considerably better than their numbers away from home, where they’ve totaled 0.88 xG/90 minutes.

Brighton does have some injury concerns, including the loss of attacking midfielder Leandro Trossard. However, Neal Maupay, Tariq Lamptey and Alexis Mac Allister should all be in the starting lineup and remain vital for the Seagulls to generate chances in Trossard’s absence.

They’ll also be without Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy in defense, which could make their usually sturdy back line a bit more vulnerable.

Goalkeeper Sá Creates Bright Spot for Wolves

Wolves defense has allowed just 14 goals from 20.3 post-shot xG this season. That means that goalkeeper José Sá has saved 6.3 goals worth of shots this year, more than any anyone else except David de Gea of Manchester United.

At age 28, Sá has never played in a big-four league and was most recently at Greek side Olympiacos. While he deserves credit for his performance at shot stopping, he’s very unlikely to sustain this level of performance.

Manager Bruno Lage’s side has somehow only conceded 14 goals from 22 expected and that’s not going to continue either.

Wolves only have 12 goals, which is second worst in the league behind only Norwich City. While they don’t have a ton of attacking talent, their collection of players is clearly better than that, even without Jiménez for this match. The finishing has been poor in front of goal and only the Canaries have faced up against better goalkeeper play than Wolverhampton.

The regression indicators are everywhere: Wolves are a generally low-scoring team, but they’ve been way more low scoring than they should be recently. A high-scoring Wolves game is coming, as some of their top attackers regress to the mean finishing and Sá plays more like an average goalkeeper than one saving everything.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is as low as it is going to get this year for both the Brighton and Wolves attacks. Wolverhampton has scored one goal in the last month and are without one of their best attackers in Jimenez. The Seagulls have magicked up some late goals to save some draws, but ask anyone and they’ll tell you they have issues creating chances.

However, the total has gone way too low given what we’ve seen of these sides in the past. At an alternative total of two goals — which is clearly deflated based on recent performance — in a match lined to be quite competitive, the Both Teams To Score number should not be plus money in my opinion.

These are teams with average attacking quality on paper and both are well underperforming their xG numbers in attack. Defensively, Wolves have also benefitted from unsustainably excellent goalkeeping.

While unders on these teams have been a cash cow most of the season, the market has swung too far. My projection has 2.31 goals for this match, so I’m taking both teams to get on the board and splitting it with a wager on the total clearing two goals at +100 odds or better as my top picks.

Pick: Total Over 2 Goals (-110) | Both Teams to Score — Yes (+100 or better)

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