Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester City Odds, Picks & Predictions for Premier League Saturday (Nov. 21)

Tottenham vs. Manchester City Odds

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Manchester City is only seven matches into the 2020-21 Premier League season, but the Cityzens find themselves in an unfamiliar position in the table. They travel to North London on Saturday to take on Tottenham in 10th place, while Spurs are second and unbeaten in their last seven league games.

Tottenham

Jose Mourinho’s men enter this contest with Manchester City sitting second in the Premier League following a stellar start to the new season. With Son Heung-min and Harry Kane (1.3 combined expected goals per game) flying high, Tottenham have been boosted by an impressive three-man midfield of Moussa Sissoko, Pierre-Emile Hjobjerg and Tanguy Ndombele.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

During their seven-match unbeaten run in the Premier League, Spurs have dropped four points, all due to last stoppage-time equalizers.

Tottenham has quite the recent history with Manchester City, knocking them out of the Champions League in the quarterfinals in 2018-19. Last season’s two Premier League meetings were filled with controversy surrounding VAR, as the teams drew in Manchester and Spurs won, 2-0, at home.

Mourinho has built his career on a successful managerial style against teams that will want to have a high percentage of possession. His Spurs side will be happy to give Manchester City the majority of the ball while they sit deeper and look to counter. Few teams in the Premier League are more built to counter better than Tottenham.

Manchester City

I wrote at length in my Premier League takeaways about how Manchester City are shooting less, generating fewer chances and conceding fewer chances so far in 2020. Manager Pep Guardiola has changed how the Cityzens approach games, but I’m a bit concerned that City’s underlying numbers represent more than just a change in tactics. Maybe Guardiola's side just isn't as good as it has been in years past.

While City did play without Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero for a stretch and that will undoubtedly affect their xG production, they also rank middle of the road in xG numbers across the board. This is the first year in the PL under Guardiola they haven’t led in xGF/90 or shots/90. Their pressing intensity is only sixth in the league, which is down from first, first and fourth in the last three seasons.

City rank fifth in the league in passes completed within 20 yards of the opponents’ goal, which is significantly worse than the past three seasons when they comfortably led the Premier League.

Betting Analysis

Spurs have been better than City across the board in the Premier League this season, and this is a matchup that doesn’t bode well for the Cityzens, given the vulnerabilities they’ve shown on the counter against both Leeds and Leicester. Both of those teams applied more ball pressure than Mourinho’s men will, but in the end, I like Spurs’ chances to take at least a point at home here, and my projections show value on the North London side.

Pick: Spurs +0.5 (+108)

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