Watford vs. Norwich City Odds, Predictions: Betting Picks for Tuesday’s Premier League Action

Norwich City at Watford Odds, Pick

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Relegation will do weird things to teams.

After losing their first three matches after the hiatus, Norwich City needed a miracle to avoid getting dropped to The Championship. A win over Brighton last Saturday could have given the Canaries a glimmer of hope, but they fell short in a 1-0 defeat.

After the final whistle several players stayed on the pitch rather than going to the locker room and their manager told the media that the loss to Brighton was their last chance at starting a great escape.

It's always a bit stunning to hear European managers wave the white flag but they are a much more frank bunch than the "it ain't over until it's over" characters we have here in the States. Daniel Farke's surrender press conference couldn't have been easy for Norwich fans to hear, but as soon as I heard it my immediate thought was that it should provide some betting value on the Canaries in their next match against Watford, the team that Norwich would need to catch to stay up, on Tuesday.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Oftentimes there's value betting a team that is in disarray. Bettors don't want to put their money on teams that have given up or seem disinterested, so bookmakers can charge a premium on their opponents.

I think that is happening on Tuesday because, statistically speaking, there really isn't enough separating these two teams to warrant the gap in the odds.

While Watford are the stronger side and there should be no doubt about their motivation, this isn't a top-of-the-table team we're talking about. Watford are in the relegation battle for a reason, just like Norwich.

And it's not like the Hornets are in good form, either. Watford has earned one point since the hiatus and their -3.66 xG differential is the third-worst mark over that span. Norwich City is one of the two teams below them, but that isn't the point. The point is that this match is being priced like a contest between a decent team and a bad team, rather than one between two bad teams.

Betting on a lame duck isn't for everyone, and I understand that, but the value lies with Norwich City on Tuesday. Should they show up, and I expect that they will since they are professional athletes, they should be able to hang with Watford because they aren't that much worse than them.