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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Midweek EPL Best Bets, Featuring Watford vs. Everton (May 10-12)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Midweek EPL Best Bets, Featuring Watford vs. Everton (May 10-12) article feature image
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Joe Prior/Visionhaus. Pictured: Watford standout Moussa Sissoko.

It’s rare a Premier League season reaches mid-May with competitive battles for the title, the top four, Champions League places and the relegation fight.

Two teams — Watford and Norwich City — have been demoted to the Championship from the English top flight, but the final spot features a competitive race between Everton, Leeds United and Burnley.

Manchester City now has a three-point edge on Liverpool to win its fourth title in five seasons, but the leader has a couple tricky road matches at top-eight sides Wolves and West Ham United in the next week. The top four race is down North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham. The two sides meet Thursday in the biggest derby between the two foes in years.

The Spurs vs. Arsenal match highlights a shortened, six-game midweek EPL slate and the latter can clinch top four with a victory. If Tottenham wins, the gap is trimmed to just one point with two matches to play.

It’s all to play for at the bottom of the table as well, where Leeds hosts Chelsea on Wednesday and Watford welcomes Everton to Vicarage Road.

Best Bets

Watford vs. Everton

Watford Odds +310
Everton Odds -115
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Everton has found some winning form at the exact moment it needed it to rescue enough points to now be favored to stay up next season.

The Toffees beat Manchester United, defeated Chelsea and took down Leicester City to pull in 10 points from their last five league matches. Next up is a road trip to already relegated Watford, but the line is inflated for this match because of the “motivational mismatch” narrative.

For example, Everton just closed as a Pick’em on the road at Burnley three weeks ago. Watford is worse than Burnley, but not that much worse to the point where the Everton should be laying half of a goal and odds-on via the moneyline.

Since Jan. 1, Everton is -0.48 xG difference per 90 minutes at even strength. Watford is -0.66 xGDiff per 90 minutes. So, the Hornets have been worse, but not that much worse.

There’s a chance Watford really doesn’t show up, but more likely than not, the host will represent well at home for one of the last matches of the season. Bettors have found success backing Everton as a home underdog or as a Pick’em play, but it’s an entirely different proposition for a bad team like Everton to be a road favorite.

Injuries are piling up for the Toffees on defense, plus Watford has performed worse than its underlying numbers suggest it is, and I have this matchup lined close to a Pick’em as well.

Pick: Watford +0.5 (-130 or better)

Spurs vs. Arsenal

Spurs Odds +115
Arsenal Odds +240
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / -105)
Day | Time Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In many ways, this North London derby is a matchup of contrasting attacking styles. Arsenal ranks third in shots per 90 minutes in attack, but sits just eighth in big scoring chances. The Gunners rely on shot volume, as well as controlled, slower-build up possession and lower quality chances to sustain their attack.

Arsenal ranks bottom half in direct attacks, while Tottenham is in the top seven in the league in the statistic. Spurs are just ninth in shots per 90 minutes, but rank third in big scoring chances and fourth in non-penalty expected goals per match compared to Arsenal in fifth overall.

The market has moved solidly in favor of Spurs at home since opening with Tottenham at +135 moneyline odds. Since Spurs picked up a result at Liverpool this past Saturday, Tottenham is now down to +115 odds. My projection is right in line with the market.

Arsenal comfortably won the reverse fixture at Emirates Stadium in September, but Spurs have been rejuvenated under new manager Antonio Conte. Tottenham is third in points, third in xG and fourth in xGDiff overall.

The Gunners have some injury questions without Thomas Partey in defensive midfield, Kieran Tierney at left back and potentially without Ben White in central defense. They’ve struggled defensively since Partey and Tierney went out and conceded twice to Chelsea, once to United and 11 total goals in the last seven matches.

Arsenal should have success in attack against Spurs defense, but Tottenham has the superior attacking talent and production under Conte. Spurs will find success attacking an overvalued Gunners defense that’s due to regress based on underlying numbers.

Pick: Spurs — 1H Team Total Over 0.5 (-110) | Spurs — Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)

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