Premier League Betting Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Chelsea vs. Arsenal

Premier League Betting Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Chelsea vs. Arsenal article feature image

Alex Livesey/Getty. Pictured: Aymeric Laporte.

It's time for more non-stop Premier League action, as the schedule becomes even more congested with the World Cup looming.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the midweek Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Manchester City vs. Fulham

Manchester City Odds-900
Fulham Odds+1800
Over/Under3.5 (-150 / +125)
Day | TimeSaturday | 11 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: I am going back to my patented Both Teams to Score – No bet with Manchester City here.

Erling Haaland is questionable to play in this game and you saw the effect it has on City when he’s not on the field. City essentially slept walked through their match against Leicester City, creating just 1 xG. They created just 1.2 npxG against Brighton, 1.2 xG against Dortmund, and then 0.9 xG against Liverpool. 

Fulham have played three big six sides this season: Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Newcastle. In those four matches, if you remove penalties, they have created just 2 xG in those three matches, have averaged nine shots and just 13 touches in the opponent's penalty area. 

Manchester City are going to control 70% possession in this match, and they are going to to play their slow, possession-dominant style, particularly if Haaland is out.

I have the BTTS-No line projected at -197, so I love the value on -120.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-120 via DraftKings)

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

Chelsea Odds+155
Arsenal Odds+170
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Graham Potter’s Chelsea do not look good right now. They were way overdue for a loss after over-performing for a large stretch and it all came in one wave, losing to his former club Brighton 4-1 at the Amex.

Since Potter has taken over Chelsea, the Blues have created 7.2 xG, they have scored nine times, they have allowed their opponents to create 7.1 xG and they have conceded six goals.

For the season now Chelsea have a -0.8 xGD. Additionally, in their last four matches in the Premier League, if you take away penalties they lost the xG battle to Aston Villa, Brentford, Manchester United and Brighton.

What Chelsea are really struggling with is turning final-third possession into a high-quality chance because they currently don’t have a go-to striker. In terms of progressive passes + dribbles, box entries and xThreat, Chelsea are in the top six in all of those categories.

But, they are outside the top 10 in shots in the penalty area and big scoring chances, which is why you currently see them only averaging 1.23 xG per 90 minutes.

Arsenal got things back on track with a 5-0 drubbing of Nottingham Forest last weekend and the Gunners' defense continues to be one of the best in the Premier League.

They are only allowing 0.77 npxG per 90 minutes, are only allowing eight shots per match and have conceded just five big scoring chances. Offensively, they created under 1 xG against Leeds and Southampton, but overall for the season they are still top four in xG.

A special moment for one of our own ❤️

Onto Thursday night, @ReissNelson9 👊

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) November 2, 2022

Another advantage Arsenal will have is Chelsea have been below average defending set pieces, while Arsenal are the second-most efficient team in the Premier League.

Chelsea are also still dealing with a lot of injuries as Wesley Fofana, N’Golo Kante and Reece James are out. Additionally, Mateo Kovacic is questionable, so Chelsea are really thin in the midfield right now.

I have Arsenal projected at +132, so I like the value on the Gunners Draw No Bet at -104, which is currently available at FanDuel.

Pick: Arsenal – Draw No Bet (-104 via FanDuel)

Aston Villa vs. Manchester United

Aston Villa Odds+230
Manchester United Odds+110
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeSunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: The biggest improvement from Manchester United this season hasn’t come in possession, but out of it. The Red Devils are considerably better defensively since Erik ten Hag came in as manager. United have conceded 1.0 non-penalty xGA or less in each of the last six league matches as they hit the road to take on Villa this Sunday. 

One area where United haven't really improved is in attack. They’re just eighth in non-penalty xG, ninth in passes into the penalty area and 16th in crosses. The Red Devils have the longest average shot distance in the Premier League and are now on the road against an excellent Villa defense.

The injuries are also piling up for United’s attack at the moment. Jadon Sancho, Anthony Martial and Antony are all questionable to play in this match and Bruno Fernandes is suspended due to yellow card accumulation. 

That will create a reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo in the attack and his production with and without the ball has taken a dip this season. 

Aston Villa will be playing their first game under new manager Unai Emery and you can immediately expect his side to be well-organized defensively and difficult to break down. Villa’s side had clearly regressed tactically under Steven Gerrard this year and while it may take time for Emery to solve the attacking issues, Villa remain stellar defensively.

One area where Villa haven't been great defensively is on set pieces, but United have been one of the worst set piece attacking teams in the PL. Villa’s defense remains a top-eight unit and that will make this game a difficult one for both attacks. I like the under 2.5 at -115 or better. 

Pick: Under 2.5 (-105 via BetRivers)

Tottenham vs. Liverpool

Tottenham Odds+230
Liverpool Odds+110
Over/Under2.5 (-138 / +110)
Day | TimeSunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Tottenham have been heavily reliant on set pieces for almost all of their goals in the last two weeks, and now Heung-min Son is out injured.

Spurs will have Dejan Kulusevski back to help kick start the attack, but they scored from a set piece in their only goal against Sporting, scored twice against Bournemouth and then their equalizer against Marseille. 

Given the level of opponent in this match, I don’t expect Spurs to get nearly as many set piece opportunities. After that, Spurs are stuck relying on transitions to generate chances and that will be difficult without Son in the lineup. 

Liverpool have had more than their fair share of defensive issues this season, but it doesn’t seem that Spurs will be able to successfully do the pressing work out of possession to create the issue for the Reds. 

Spurs are still excellent at defending the penalty area and Liverpool’s attack isn’t nearly as potent as years past. This feels like a game where Liverpool dominate the ball and fail to create big scoring chances on the road, but Spurs lack the ball retention and potency in transition to exploit the Reds on the other end.

Matches between big six clubs have flown over in the last two years of the Premier League, but I’m holding my nose and taking the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+110 via Bet365)

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