Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Watford vs. Burnley (Thursday, June 25)

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Tim Markland/EMPICS/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Dyche

Watford at Burnley Odds, Picks

Watford odds +140 (BET NOW)
Burnley odds +220 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +220 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-141)
(BET NOW)
Time Thursday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The summer of soccer rolls on Thursday as Burnley host relegation-threatened Watford at 1 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold.

Burnley’s restart got off to a terrible start as they were thumped, 5-0, by Man City. It’s hard to know where Burnley’s motivational level is as they have nothing to play for and there’s been a bit of unrest at the club due to some contract issues with key players.

There should be no question about Watford’s motivation as the Hornets are just one point above the relegation zone, though they do have a game in hand on the teams below them.

Burnley

The Clarets defense-first style did not end up matching up well with Manchester City.

Burnley are a much better team than that performance showed and it was especially disappointing because the Clarets were in good form prior to the hiatus. The Clarets were undefeated with a +2.75 expected goals differential in their previous seven matches.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Burnley is 5-1-1 with a +0.89 average expected goals differential (2.08 xGF vs. 1.19 xGA) in home matches against the bottom half of the table. In other words, Sean Dyche’s side wins the matches that they are supposed to win.

Watford

It’s been a really disappointing season so far for Watford and their struggles on the road have landed them in a fragile position in the table. The Hornets have taken just 10 points and are averaging just 0.89 expected goals for in 15 away matches in 2019-20.


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Watford tried to bolster their attack during the transfer window signing winger Ismaila Sarr from Rennes for $33 million but the 22-year-old hasn’t had a significant impact in Premier League, creating only 5.63 xG in 20 appearances.

Watford earned a draw against Leicester thanks to a 93rd-minute equalizer in their return match but good results have been hard to come by for the Hornets, who have taken just six of a possible 24 points and have a -1.95 expected goals differential in their last eight matches.

Previous Meeting

The Clarets throttled the Hornets, 3-0, in the reverse fixture at Vicarage Road. Burnley played their game to perfection, staying strong defensively, and hit Watford on the counter effectively. The expected goals report backed up their dominant performance.

Analysis

In my opinion, the wrong team is favored in this match.

Burnley have been the better side to this point, and even though there are some personnel issues for the Clarets, my model makes them favorites for this match:

  • Burnley projected odds: +114 (46.66% win probability)
  • Watford projected odds: +257 (27.98%)
  • Draw projected odds: +294 (25.37%)
  • Burnley projected xG: 1.53
  • Watford projected xG: 1.16

Sean Dyche is the type of manager who gets the most out of his team so I’m happy to buy low on Burnley in this spot with a play on the Draw No Bet line.

Pick: Burnley Draw No Bet (+123)
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