Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City Odds, Pick, Prediction: Expect Both Offense to Shine in EPL Matchup (Oct. 3)

Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City Odds, Pick, Prediction: Expect Both Offense to Shine in EPL Matchup (Oct. 3) article feature image
Credit:

Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Wilfried Zaha.

  • Crystal Palace welcomes Leicester City to Selhurst Park for Sunday’s Premier League match.
  • Oddsmakers have pegged the Foxes as road favorites, but Anthony Dabbundo can’t recommend either side.
  • Check out below where he’s found betting value when it comes to goal scoring.

Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +200
Leicester City Odds +140
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -120)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Many people didn’t expect Leicester City and Crystal Palace to only be one place apart from each other in the Premier League table. Most saw the Eagles in the relegation battle and the Foxes competing for European places.

However, when the two clubs meet Sunday at Selhurst Park, Leicester City will be the side more desperate for points to climb out of the early-season hole they’ve dug themselves in with poor attacking performances and leaky defense.

Crystal Palace suffered a brutal fate on home soil Monday against Brighton & Hove Albion in the M23 derby when the visitors scored on the last kick of the game deep in stoppage time to prevent the host from taking all three points.

On the other side, Leicester City received a bit of fortune, as Burnley’s stoppage-time goal was rightly ruled inches offside after a VAR review.

Despite a poor start, the Foxes improved offensively in the last two matches and the youth injection to the Palace attack suggests the market is too low on both offenses entering this game.

Crystal Palace’s Offense Has Made Modest Strides

For many years, the Palace attack has run almost entirely through Wilfried Zaha on the counter. His elite dribbling and take-on abilities was the main outlet for the Eagles, and he was the main ball progressor and chance-creation player. But this year, Palace — under new manager Patrick Vieira — have more options to turn to, and the result has been an improved attack.

Connor Gallagher is producing 0.43 xG+xA per 90 minutes and young forward Odsonne Édouard scored twice as a super substitute in his first match and had three shots in Monday’s EPL debut. Zaha is still the main chance-creation outlet, but these auxiliary pieces have livened up the Palace attack along with aerial threat and target man Christian Benteke.

The Eagles had the 19th-best attack in the EPL last season, which has moved to up to 15th this campaign. It might not seem like a huge jump, but at the margins, it’s sizable for a club trying to transition, get younger and remain in the division.

Crystal Palace have also achieved that 15th ranking against a difficult schedule of opponents that includes Liverpool, Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton. Leicester is worse defensively than all of those sides.

Leicester City Failing to Meet Expectations

Almost no team has underperformed preseason expectations more than Leicester City, who were expected to be the best of the rest outside the Premier League big six and have been anything but.

Some even thought the Foxes could challenge for the Champions League places after they did for most of the last two seasons.

However, the Foxes have gotten little production out of their midfielders, their defense has dealt with inconsistent play and injuries and Jamie Vardy’s production as striker has taken a significant dip at the front of the Foxes’ line.

Manager Brendan Rodgers made some changes to the lineup ahead of their game against Brighton, and the Foxes’ two best performances of the season have followed.

The results didn’t quite come for the Foxes in a 2-1 defeat to Brighton and 2-2 draw with Burnley, but their shot numbers, passing numbers and ball-progression numbers improved considerably.

The out-of-form James Maddison and Ayoze Perez were dropped, and Harvey Barnes, Boubakary Soumaré and Ademola Lookman have been inserted. Through their first four games, Leicester averaged 0.9 xGF per 90. In the two games against solid defenses in Brighton and Burnley, they averaged 2.2 xGF overall.

I’m not one to read into super-small samples, but the midfield with Soumaré and Youri Tielemans playing as 8s works much better than Ndidi and Tielemans as a midfield two, and the Foxes’ progressive passing numbers have shot up.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

My projection for the three-way moneyline is pretty close to the current number and I can’t recommend a play on a side in this match.

But with the improved Foxes offense as more in-form attackers are brought into the lineup, and Palace featuring more attacking options than it has in years, this game should feature chances at both ends and be a relatively open, attacking affair.

My projection puts both teams to score at implied odds of -140, so anything -125 or better is worth a play.

Leicester City’s offense is playing better in the last few games, and their defense remains questionable headed on the road against an improved Crystal Palace side that’s caused problems for them in the past.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-125 or better)

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