Leicester City vs. Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction: Reds Still a Huge Favorite in Tuesday EPL Clash

Leicester City vs. Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction: Reds Still a Huge Favorite in Tuesday EPL Clash article feature image
Credit:

Andrew Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Diogo Jota

  • Liverpool is now a -425 favorite against Leicester City at DraftKings for Tuesday's Premier League match (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
  • Both teams are generating tons of offense -- both on the scoresheet and based on underlying metrics -- so we're betting the total in this match.
  • Get our full Liverpool vs. Leicester preview and pick below.

Updated Leicester vs. Liverpool Odds

Leicester City Odds +1000
Liverpool Odds -425
Draw +600
Over/Under 3.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds updated on Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

In the first round of post-boxing day fixtures, Liverpool and Leicester City will engage in a replay of their thrilling Carabao Cup fixture from last week.

The Foxes went up 3-1 at Anfield — against a weak LFC squad — but Diogo Jota and Takumi Minamino struck back to level the game and set it to penalties. The Reds were able to get the job done from there.

Liverpool players mob goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher after he made two saves in the penalty shoot-out to take them through to the semi-final 🔴 👏 pic.twitter.com/vnhDqZKpLe

— Football Daily (@footballdaily) December 22, 2021

Liverpool had its Boxing Day match with Leeds postponed due to a COVID outbreak among the Peacocks’ squad, so this will be the second consecutive game that Liverpool plays against Leicester.

Despite that, this game should have a far different feel to it due to the players and stakes that will feature in the contest. Here’s where I believe the betting value lies.

Leicester City Being Hampered By Defense

The reason for Leicester’s Premier League troubles this year is not its attack, which has amassed 12 goals in the Foxes’ four prior games. Leicester garnered just one win in that span to go with two losses and a draw.

That’s because Leicester is one of the worst defensive sides in the league. The Foxes are conceding 1.69 xGA/game, good for fifth-worst in the EPL, and it has cost Brendan Rodgers’ team greatly.

Only three teams in the Premier League have conceded more goals than Leicester, and that is not a good sign when coming up against an attacking trio that is as good as the one LFC has. When Leicester City faced the Reds in the Carabao Cup, it was Minamino, Roberto Firmino and right back Neco Williams that led the charge. The Foxes still conceded three goals.

On Tuesday, the Liverpool test becomes even tougher when a likely trio of Jota, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane take the pitch. I’m not sure how Rodgers will attempt to limit that attack, but it’s certainly not going to be easy.

Liverpool Aiming to Match Manchester City

At this point in the Premier League season, it’s becoming clear that beating City to the title is a daunting task once again. The Cityzens are six points clear of Chelsea and Liverpool, though LFC has a game in hand, and they’ve now won nine Premier League games on the bounce.

Man City also generates the most xG in the league while conceding the least xGA in the Prem. The question for Liverpool becomes, how can they keep up the pace with Pep Guardiola’s men? It’s hard to argue that there is a squad better equipped to compete than Liverpool’s, but it’s going to take another herculean effort.

We saw in the 2018/19 season and in the 2019/20 season just how strong Liverpool can be, but it will be an uphill battle to go toe-to-toe with City yet again.

Away games against decent teams such as Leicester are not easy to cash in on over and over, but Liverpool doesn’t have a choice if it wants to contend for the title. These types of games are must-win situations, and Jurgen Klopp knows that.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When these two teams face off in their current form, goals are all but guaranteed. Leicester is generating 1.51 xG/game at the King Power Stadium while Liverpool is managing 2.4 xG/game away from Anfield.

The Reds haven’t had a PL fixture since their 3-2 loss against West Ham on November 7 in which they didn’t generate two-plus xG. They’re also not immune to defensive lapses, however, allowing six goals in their last three matches.

While the return of Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho from COVID absences will shore up that defense to an extent, we saw what Leicester is capable of doing at the weekend.

Look for a similar story to unfold at the KP Stadium in a match that projects to be an incredibly entertaining one.

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (-105)

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